【摘要】 内容提要:本文利用持续—短暂模型(permanent-transitory model,简写为p-t模型)分粳米和籼米对中国大米市场价格共因子进行了分析。研究发现,在中国粳米市场价格长期行为的形成过程中,湖北、天津、黑龙江、吉林、浙江和江苏的影响比较大,其中,浙江起主导作用;在中国籼米市场价格长期行为的形成过程中,广西、湖北、湖南、江西、四川和浙江的影响比较大,其中,江西起主导作用。在决策过程中,决策者应重点考虑对影响较大的地区采取有针对性的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 By applying permanent-transitory model,this paper studies common factors in China long grain(Indica)and medium grain(Japonica)markets.The results are as follows:Firstly,shaping of the long run behavior of China Japonica price is mostly influenced by Hubei,Tianjin,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Zhejiang and so on,and Zhejiang dominates the other markets;Secondly,shaping of the long run behavior of China Indicaica price is affected by Guangxi,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Sichuan etc.,and Jiangxi plays the key role.Policymakers should principally take steps aiming for these regions which are the most important during the shaping of the long run behavior of China rice price.更多还原