【摘要】 人口结构从需求和供给两个方面对产业结构升级产生重要影响。中国人口老龄化进程加快,将老龄化作为产业结构升级的重要因素纳入模型,采用1990～2015年的面板数据构建动态空间计量模型,分析老龄化对产业结构升级产生的空间效应,有利于在人口红利消失的情况下合理进行产业布局以应对老龄化的挑战,研究实证结果发现:产业结构升级的主要动力是区域自身产业状况和临近地区产业发展的空间溢出效应;短期内老龄化促进了产业间结构升级,且对中、西部地区产生的效应明显大于东部地区;长期内却产生负的溢出效应,邻近区域将需承担更多的老龄化负担。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important factor,the population structure can take the effect on the upgrading of industrial structure from two aspects of supply and demand. By building dynamic spatial econometric model,and the aging factors as an important factors structure included into the model,we use the panel data of 1990～2015 to construct the dynamic spatial econometric model and analysis how the aging impact the upgrading of industrial structure. The analysis of the spatial effect of aging on industrial structure upgrading is conducive to reasonable industrial layout in the case of the disappearance of demographic dividend to meet the challenges of aging. The empirical results show that the main driving force of industrial structure upgrading is the regional industrial situation and the spatial spillover effect of industrial development in neighboring regions;in the short term,aging promotes the upgrading of inter-industrial structure,and has a greater effect on the central and western regions than the eastern regions in China. however,there is a negative spillover effect,and the neighboring regions will have to bear more of the burden of ageing In the long run.更多还原