【摘要】 为分析小清河径流变化规律，基于1965～2018年的降水和径流量数据，分析其变化趋势及突变点，并采用Budyko假设与弹性系数相结合的方法，定量识别了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明，1965～2018年小清河降水量呈微弱增加趋势，而径流量呈显著增加趋势；突变点分析发现年径流量在1994、2003年发生突变，因此将1965～1994年作为基准期，以1995～2003、2004～2018年分别作为变化期Ⅰ、Ⅱ;基于Budyko水热耦合平衡方程发现变化期Ⅰ径流增加的主要原因是下垫面条件和降水的改变，贡献率分别为64.74%、21.83%,潜在蒸散发的贡献率为13.43%;变化期Ⅱ径流增加的首要原因是下垫面条件的改变，占59.57%,其次是降水和潜在蒸散发，分别为23.83%、16.60%。因此，小清河岔河径流变化是人类活动和气候变化共同作用的结果，其中人类活动引起的下垫面条件变化为主导因素，其次为降水影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to understand the runoff characteristics in the Xiaoqing River Basin, the change trend and mutation point of precipitation and runoff were analyzed based on the precipitation and flow in 1965-2018. The impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes were quantitatively identified by the combination of Budyko hypothesis and elastic coefficient. The results showed that the annual precipitation of 1965-2018 showed an insignificant increasing trend, while the runoff showed a significant increasing trend; Based on mutation point analysis, the annual runoff was changed abruptly in 1994 and 2003, and 1965-1994 was taken as the base period, 1995-2003 and 2004-2018 were as the change period Ⅰ and change period Ⅱ, respectively; The contribution rates of underlying surface conditions and precipitation on runoff changes in change period Ⅰ were 64.74% and 21.83%, while the contribution of potential evapotranspiration was 13.43%. Similar results were showed in change period Ⅱ of the runoff changes, 59.57% was attributed from underlying surface changes, 23.83% and 16.60% were from precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The runoff in the Xiaoqing River Basin was jointly changed by human activities and climate change. The change of underlying surface conditions caused by human activities is the dominant factor. The second is the influence of precipitation.更多还原