【摘要】 通过对比多期湿地面积信息，监测分析沁蟒河湿地退化情况；应用“压力-状态-响应”（PSR）模型建立的湿地生态系统健康综合评价指标体系，并根据韦伯-费希纳定律的基本原理，构建湿地生态健康综合评价模型进行定量计算和分析评价；利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测沁蟒河湿地面积的演变趋势.研究结果表明，沁蟒河湿地退化明显，目前生态系统处于较差程度；预测沁蟒河湿地中的河流、河漫滩面积在2025年将进一步萎缩，林灌沼泽、草本沼泽将基本绝迹，形势十分严峻.更多还原

【Abstract】 This study monitored and analyzed the degradation of the Qinmang River wetland by comparing the multistage wetland area information. Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of wetland ecosystem health established by pressure-state-response(PSR)model,a comprehensive evaluation model of wetland ecosystem health was established according to the basic principle of Weber-Fishner law for quantitative calculation and analysis. Also,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to predict the evolution trend of the Qinmang River wetland area in 2025. The results showed that the Qinmang River wetland degraded obviously,and the current ecosystem health was in a poor degree. It is predicted that in 2025,the areas of riverine wetland and floodplain of the Qingmang River wetland will further shrink,and the forest swamp and herbaceous swamp will basically disappear,which is a very serious situation.更多还原