【摘要】 云贵准静止锋是贵州冬季最主要的天气系统之一，预报难度较大。本文利用2007-2021年云贵川渝桂五省（市、区）国家气象观测站的逐日地面常规观测站点资料及贵州08:00（北京时，下同）至次日08:00日降水量数据，通过合成分析、 EOF和REOF分析、 EEMD等气象统计方法，分析了云贵准静止锋的冬季气候特征以及在贵州地区不同量级的锋面降雨特征。结果表明：（1）贵州冬季平均有52.8天准静止锋天气，1月准静止锋影响最严重，其次是2月、 12月；（2）冬季云贵准静止锋的锋向以南北型为最多，平均位于曲靖附近；其次是西北-东南型，平均位于贵州西部地区；东西型很少；中等强度准静止锋最多且易出现在前冬，强准静止锋次之且易发生在后冬，弱准静止锋最少；（3）锋面降水以降雨（纯雨或冻雨）为主，准静止锋强度越强，锋面降雨日数越少，且锋面降雨日数占比随准静止锋强度减弱而增加；锋面降雨量主要集中在5.0 mm以下，锋面降雨概率与雨量成反比，与降雨范围成正比，当锋面降雨量级较弱时，锋面降雨概率随雨量增加呈单峰结构，随降雨范围扩大呈双峰结构；（4）EOF和REOF分型结果得到影响贵州的两种不同量级锋面降水类型：中东部型锋面降雨多在前冬且多南北型，强度多中等或弱等级，易发生0.1～1.0 mm量级的大范围降雨；西南部型锋面降雨多在后冬且多南北型或西北-东南型，强度多强等级，易发生1.1～5.0 mm量级的小范围降雨。（5）中东部型年均降雨量气候倾向率为负值，累计距平变化大致呈“M”型分布；西南部型年均降雨量气候倾向率为正值，阶段性特征明显，累计距平变化大致呈“W”型分布；两者均存在准4年和准8年周期振荡；近年来中东部型锋面降雨呈减少趋势，西南部型呈增加趋势。该研究结果能为贵州地区冬季准静止锋天气的预报预测提供重要的气候背景依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The quasi-stationary front in Yunnan and Guizhou is one of the most important weather systems in Guizhou in winter, and it is difficult to forecast. This paper analyzes the winter climate characteristics of the quasi-stationary front in Yunnan and Guizhou and frontal rainfall characteristics of different magnitudes in Guizhou by using the daily ground conventional observation station data of five provinces(cities, districts) of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi from 2007 to 2021 and the daily precipitation data of Guizhou from 08:00 to 08:00. The results show that:(1) There are 52. 8 days of the quasi-stationary front weather in Guizhou in winter on average. The impact of the quasi-stationary front is most serious in January, followed by February and December.(2) In winter, the front direction of the quasi-stationary front in Yunnan and Guizhou is the most south-north type, averaging near Qujing; The second is the northwest southeast type, which is located in the west of Guizhou on average; There are few east-west types; The moderate intensity quasi-stationary front is the most and tends to occur in the early winter, the strong quasi-stationary front is the second and tends to occur in the late winter, and the weak quasi-stationary front is the least.(3) The frontal precipitation is dominated by rainfall(rain or freezing rain). The stronger the quasi-stationary front is, the fewer the days of frontal precipitation are, and the proportion of the days of frontal precipitation increases with the weakening of the quasi-stationary front; The frontal rainfall is mainly concentrated below 5. 0 mm, and the frontal rainfall probability is inversely proportional to the rainfall and is proportional to the rainfall range. When the frontal rainfall is weak, the frontal rainfall probability is unimodal with the increase of rainfall and bimodal with the expansion of rainfall range.(4) The results of EOF and REOF classification show that there are two types of frontal precipitation with different magnitudes that affect Guizhou: the frontal precipitation in the central and eastern regions is mostly in the early winter and more south-north, with moderate or weak intensity and prone to large-scale rainfall of 0. 1～1. 0mm magnitude; The southwest type frontal rainfall is mostly in the late winter, and it is mostly north-south type or north-west southeast type. The intensity is strong, and the small-scale rainfall of 1. 1～5. 0 mm is easy to occur.(5) The climate tendency rate of the average annual rainfall in the middle-east type is negative, and the cumulative anomaly changes are roughly in the "M" shape; The climate tendency rate of annual average rainfall in the southwest type is positive, with obvious stage characteristics, and the cumulative anomaly changes are roughly "W" shaped; Both of them have quasi 4 years and quasi 8 years periodic oscillations; In recent years, the frontal rainfall in the middle-east has decreased, while that in the southwest has increased. The results can provide an important climate background for the prediction of quasi-stationary front weather in winter in Guizhou.更多还原