【摘要】 2024年欧洲议会选举及随后提前举行的国民议会选举加速了法国政治格局的重塑，在右翼民粹主义政治力量迅速崛起的同时，形成了左—中—极右“三派割据”的结构，进一步激发了法国政治生态的碎片化。导致如此政治生态的原因主要为三重危机：一是在法国经济发展重重困顿之下所出现的民生境遇的严重恶化；二是在日益复杂的社会情势之下民众的认同危机逐渐加剧；三是在传统政党政治式微的背景下民众意欲寻找新的替代方案。如此局势对法国的影响将会是深远的：首先，未来短期内法国在深化经济社会改革方面将面临重重阻力；其次，法国社会的内在分化或将进一步加剧；最后，新的政治生态或将催化法国政治制度的深度变革。未来法国政局的稳定将依赖于各方如何在新的“社会契约”重塑中形成共识。更多还原

【Abstract】 The recomposition of the French political landscape was accelerated by the 2024 European elections and the subsequent National Assembly elections. With the rapid rise of right-wing populist political forces, a “three-party” structure of left–center–extreme-right has further stimulated the fragmentation of France’s political ecology. The causes of this political ecology are mainly manifested in a triple crisis: first, the severe deterioration of living conditions due to the challenges of French economic development; second, the gradual aggravation of the people’s identity crisis under the increasingly complex social situation; and third, the search for new alternatives in the face of declining traditional party politics. The impact of this situation on France will be far-reaching. First, France will encounter significant difficulties in implementing economic and social reforms in the short term;second, internal divisions in French society may further deepen; and third, the new political ecology may catalyze a profound transformation of French political institutions. The future stability of the French political situation will depend on the consensus that emerges from the reshaping of the new “social contract”.更多还原