【摘要】 作为快速交通流线的主要形式,高速铁路建设能有效拓展区域人口流动空间、增强区域联系度。本研究以沪宁城际高速铁路为例,基于宏观经济联系及问卷调查,通过构建经济联系强度模型、人口流动空间联系指数以及产业人口联系指数,定量分析城际高速铁路建设对区域人口流动空间的影响,探讨沪宁地区"一轴双核"经济结构运行机理。研究发现:①沪宁城际高速铁路建设有效拓宽了城市间人口流动时空,缩短了区域经济距离,以南京市和上海市为核心的人口、产业以及经济空间集聚效应明显,宁镇扬(南京、镇江、扬州)和苏锡常(苏州、无锡、常州)一体化程度增加,并且上海市与苏锡常地区相互联系增强,人口、产业、经济发展均质化程度提高;②高速铁路建成后,南京及上海周边地区呈现人口集聚的极核效应,上海与苏州、无锡与常州、南京与镇江的人口流动联系强度加强,高速铁路沿线区域"一轴双核"空间发展特征明显,经济一体化趋势加快;③沪宁城际高速铁路建成后,沿线居民出行频次增加,尤其是20-44岁之间的有较高职业声望的青壮年劳动力流动频次增加显著,这种微观变化一方面表征了区域经济联系度的增加,另一方面体现了区域人力资本之间的融合与相互依赖,是经济一体化的内在表现形式;④高速铁路服务水平、舒适度、准时性、高效性等是居民选择乘坐高速铁路的主要影响因子,居民出行及相互交流更注重实效;⑤结合区域产业分工与人口集聚,上海、南京的批发和零售业、文化、体育和娱乐业等,镇江市的信息传输、计算机服务和软件业等的产业人口流动趋势指数为正值,这些产业人口的流动是区域人口集聚的主要因素;同时苏州、无锡的制造业、常州的金融业等产业人口流动趋势指数为负值,从而导致这些城市人口呈现扩散趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the main form of rapid traffic streamline,high-speed railway(HSR) can effectively expand regional population space of flow and strengthen the regional connection. Based on the interviews and questionnaires from the passengers of high-speed rail,this paper analyzes the intercity space of flows and the spatial integration indicated by the individual micro behavior choice,discusses Shanghai-Nanjing"one axis dual-core"running mechanism of the economic structure by building economic relation force model,population space of flow contact index and space contact of industrial population index. The findings include: ①Not only does ShanghaiNanjing intercity high-speed railway effectively broaden space and time of population flow between cities,but also shorten the distance of the regional economy. Population,industry,and economy present spatial agglomeration in Shanghai and Nanjing. The level of integration in regions of Ning-Zhen-Yang and Su-Xi-Chang increase,meanwhile the linkages between Shanghai and region of Su-XiChang are strengthened,as the degree of homogenization in population,industry,and economy development increases. ② The surroundings of Nanjing and Shanghai present polar nuclei of population agglomeration effect. The contact of population flow is strengthened between Shanghai and Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou,Nanjing and Zhenjiang,therefore the trend of urban integration becomes evident. At the same time it presents"one axis dual-core"space development characteristics in the region along high-speed railway,and economic integration trend becomes obvious. ③ After the Shanghai-Nanjing intercity high-speed railway has been completed,the frequency of people travel increases,especially those young adults between ages 20 to 44 and with a higher occupational prestige. It indicates the regional economic connection is strengthened and regional human capital is of interdependence and fusion. ④The service level,comfort,punctuality,high efficiency,etc are main factors that influence the residents choose high speed railway to have a trip. ⑤Combined with the regional industry division of labor and population agglomeration,it discovers that the trend index of population flow in industries of wholesale and retail industries,culture,sports and entertainment in Shanghai and Nanjing,information transmission,computer services and software industry in Zhenjiang is positive. The population flow in those industries is the main factor of regional population agglomeration. Simultaneously the trend index of population flow in industry of manufacturing industry and finance in Suzhou and Wuxi is negative,leading to the urban population showed a trend of diffusion.更多还原