【作者】 尚海涛；

【导师】 任宗哲；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 国民经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着体制改革的逐步深化,陕西省地方财政所面临的问题日益显现,其承担的风险呈不断加剧的趋势,对财政的稳健运行和经济的可持续发展已经构成潜在的威胁。因此,关注和研究地方财政风险,有针对性地提出一些制度安排,对防范和化解地方财政风险,保持地方经济的又好又快发展具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。作者以地方财政风险的成因分析、影响因素、现状分析为主线,以地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方政府公共风险三类地方财政风险为辅助,对陕西省地方财政风险问题展开了深入研究。在系统回顾国内外风险理论、政府债务理论以及财政风险理论的基础上,作者首先借助经济学相关理论,从地方政府行为和地方财政运行两个角度剖析了地方财政风险的形成机理。随后,作者结合地方财政风险的影响因素和陕西省地方财政经济运行的现状,分别从地方政府债务、地方财政收支、平衡、体制以及政府公共风险等都多个视角,进一步分析了陕西省地方财政风险的现状。在上述分析的基础上,作者运用AHP熵权模糊综合评价法、GARCH模型以及KLR灯号法等计量方法,初步建立了陕西省地方财政风险评估和监控模型,并使用陕西省2001-2008年的相关要素数据对该评估监控模型进行了验证。最后,针对现状分析和模型验证的结果提出了陕西省防范和控制地方财政风险的政策性建议。本文主要的结论是,陕西省地方财政风险是客观存在的,但并非不可控制,为解决风险与发展并存的矛盾,需要地方财政在运行中立足于公共财政的角度,制定完善的各项收支管理制度,重视从财政预算编制到支出管理的全过程,并建立完善防范地方财政风险的预警系统,通过建立科学化、系统化、公共化的财政管理机制来缓解和控制地方财政风险的进一步蔓延。在实际的操作上,这就要求陕西省地方财政运行和体制安排时即应具有前瞻性,同时又必须将过渡性应对措施融入体制设计中。可以归结为以下两方面：一方面,陕西省地方财政要为地方政府的公共服务和资源配置职能提供相应的财力保障,即建立公共财政体制的基本框架,使地方政府提供公共产品与服务、调节经济运行等职能得到有效保障。另一方面,陕西省地方财政充分认识并积极应对财政风险带来财政危机的可能性,在承担公共职能及支付转轨成本等很多过渡性职责的同时,研究制订相应的政策措施将风险控制在财力允许的范围之内。作者的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面：①关于财政风险形成原因的再认识。作者从对政府行为的经济分析入手来研究地方财政风险的成因,认为财政风险的成因首先来源于政府行为的偏差,由于财政职能的发挥不仅会受到各种外界因素的制约和影响,同时更会受到政府行为的内在制约和影响,并因此造成一定的职能偏差或失效,而这种偏差和失效不仅体现在地方政府追求自身垄断利润最大化的短期行为和机会主义行为等现象上,而且对政府间财政分权体制和财政管理体制造成影响,政府间财政关系的模糊和体制确定时的绝对制约关系,是引发财政风险的一个重要原因。②关于陕西省地方财政风险的影响因素分析。在一定财力条件的约束下,公共风险-债务风险-运行风险处于一种循环状态,这种循环状态一旦脱离经济稳定运行的均衡状态,财政风险将不可避免地导致政府危机的发生,从而对整个社会治理结构造成威胁。此外,财政运行中自身的一些非系统性因素,由于财政自身改革的不到位,预算软约束等因素又会对财政运行的自身发生作用,这种作用一旦显性化,将对财政的自动运行稳定机制造成影响,虽然这种不稳定的影响只作用于财政自身,但其带来的财政风险也是财政管理者所不愿意看到的,如果这种内在的风险因素进一步强化,可能会参与到系统风险的不断循环和强化中,尽管目前的财政管理方式对其有很大的约束作用,但是如果非系统的风险因素累积到足够爆发的状态,其必然也将成为系统性风险的构成部分。③作者综合国外财政风险研究经验和陕西省的具体省情初步建立了一个较为科学的地方财政风险评估和预警体系。通过综合选取静态、动态和结构指标,结合陕西省的具体情况,初步建立起适合陕西省财政运行特点的财政风险评估和监测指标体系,应用AHP熵权模糊综合评价模型对风险指标进行评估,应用GARCH模型对各个风险指标的合理区间和警限值进行了测量,最后,在此基础上应用KLR信号法对陕西省2001-2008年的财政风险状况进行了灯号显示,并以此监测、分析和度量陕西省的财政风险状况。更多还原

【Abstract】 The problems that Shaanxi local finance facing have become clearer and clearer with deepening of system reform, while risks going worse. This has been potential threat to both of financial stabilization and economic sustainability. That’s necessary and meaningful to pay attention to and make research on local fiscal risks, give some advices of institution arrangements for the goals of addressing local fiscal risks and keeping healthy development of local economy.In this thesis, the author gave analysis on cause of fiscal risks, influence factors and status quo, also observation on debt risks of local government, risks of finance revenue and expenditure and public risks of local government, and made intensive study on fiscal risks. On the base of reviewing risk theories, government debt theories and fiscal risk theories from domestic and abroad, the writer analyzed the mechanism of local fiscal risks from two angles of local government behavior and local finance function. And with the consideration of influence factors of local finance risks and local finance function, further analysis on local finance risks in Shaanxi Province and advices against local fiscal risks were given. At last, the system of risk evaluation and supervisory control of Shaanxi local finance was established, and the local finance status in Shaanxi from 2001 to 2008 have been estimated and pre-warned, with measures of AHP comprehensive assessment, GARCH model, and KLR methods.As conclusion, it’s viewed that the fiscal risks in Shaanxi Province are objective and controllable. To resolve the contradiction between risks and development, it needs to make round institutions on financial revenue and expenditure management, to attach importance to the whole procedure from budget making to expending control, and to build and perfect early warning system. For operation, Shaanxi finance department should build basic frame of public finance on the one hand, so as to supply public goods, service and support to adjust economy. On the other hand, the current finance risks should be responded positively, with policies and measures being studied and made.In this paper, three innovations are made. The first is re-reorganization about the cause of finance risks. For the opinion of author, it is mainly the deviation of government behavior that pursuing the maximization of monopoly interest which influence the systems of inter-government finance and finance management. The second is analysis of influence factor of finance risks. Normally, under the control of finance, public risks, debt risks and operating risks are running in conditions of circulation, but finance risks and government crisis will happen while economy running out-of-balance. In addition, some factors within finance system, like halfway reform and soft-constraint of budget, could also influence the operating of finance system, and sometimes become part of systematic risks while it growing. The third is building an initial system of finance risk assessment and early warning which fitting the characteristics well of Shaanxi province. With the system, the local finance status in Shaanxi from 2001 to 2008 have been estimated and pre-warned, with measures of AHP comprehensive assessment, GARCH model, and KLR methods.更多还原