【作者】 刘竹蓉；

【导师】 孔荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 会计学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 在我国经济增长主要依靠资本(尤其是固定资产投资)投入增加来推动的大背景下,有关陕西固定资产投资效率的问题及产业投资结构失衡的现状正日益引起人们的广泛关注。本论文在实证考察陕西三次产业固定资产投资效率基础上,试图从投资规模、技术进步和产业结构内部配置等方面分析固定资产投资效率不高的成因以及如何缓解。本研究站在产业结构层面上,从分析陕西第一、二、三产业的固定资产投资效率入手,进而研究陕西固定资产投资效率,并且从中发现影响投资效率的因素。首先,从固定资产总体规模、固定资产投资主体结构、固定资产投资使用结构、固定资产投资产业结构与三次产业对GDP贡献率的关系入手,分析当前陕西固定资产投资的现状和存在的问题。其次,运用陕西三次产业在九五期间至十一五期间(前三年)的投入产出面板数据,采用非参数malmquist-DEA指数法得出三次产业固定资产投资全要素生产效率值以及将其分解为技术效率指数和技术进步指数,进一步将技术效率指数分解为纯技术效率指数和规模效率指数,以便从内部分析影响固定资产投资效率的因素。最后,先假设对外开放程度、技术进步、投资规模、消费水平、环境受损成本和释放劳动力的能力这六个因素为影响陕西固定资产投资效率的主要因素,然后运用Tobit回归分析方法验证假设是否成立,并且确定影响方向和程度。研究发现,陕西三次产业的固定资产投资效率大部分年份均未达到效率前沿面上,即在九五、十五及十一五(前三年)期间始终小于1,尤其是十一五时期(前三年)的固定资产投资全要素生产率最为恶劣,平均值仅为0.745。出现固定资产投资效率下降是技术衰退造成的,而技术效率对固定资产投资效率具有积极的促进作用,其中纯技术效率的提高成为影响技术效率的关键因素。在影响陕西三次产业固定资产投资效率的因素中,最重要的是科技进步,其次是对外开放程度、投资规模和消费水平,再次是环境受损成本和释放劳动力的能力,并且回归分析的变动方向与假设变动方向相同。本论文所得出的结论在对提高陕西固定资产投资效率及优化产业结构方面具有以下几点政策建议:首先,要加大对陕西科技扶持力度,改变技术进步不适合陕西产业结构的不利局面;其次,改善投资软环境,积极吸引外商投资;再次,通过产业结构的不断升级和投资规模的适当扩大,优化产业投资结构;最后,深化和推进投资体制改革。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s economic growth mainly depends on the increase of capital (especially fixed assets investment) investment to promote. In this background, there has been a growing interesting recently about the issue of the efficiency of fixed assets investment in Shaanxi and industrial investment structure imbalance for concern. Based on investigating the efficiency of fixed assets investment in three industries of Shaanxi empirically, this paper is trying to find the causes of low efficiency and how to mitigate them by analyzing the investment scale, technological progress and internal configuration of industrial structure.This paper analyzes the efficiency of fixed assets investment in three industries of Shaanxi from the level of industrial structure, and studies the efficiency of fixed assets investment in order to find the factors affecting the efficiency of investment . Firstly, we analyzes the actuality of fixed assets investment in Shaanxi and existing problems from the overall size of fixed assets, the subject structure of fixed assets investment, the using structure of fixed assets investment,the relationship between industrial structure of fixed assets investment and three industries′contribution to GDP. Secondly, we draw a conclusion that the value of three industries′total factor productivity and decompose it into technical efficiency index and technological progress index ,furthermore technical efficiency index is decomposed into pure technical efficiency index and scale efficiency index in order to analyze the factors internally which affect the efficiency of fixed assets investment by adopting the non-parametric malmquist-DEA index and applying the input and output panel data in three industries of Shaanxi Province during the Ninth Five-Year period to Eleventh Five-Year period(the first three years). Finally, this paper assumes there have six main factors that affect the efficiency of fixed assets investment in Shaanxi, these factors are opening level, technological progress, investment scale, consumption, environmental damage cost and ability to release labor. Then we use Tobit regression analysis to test hypotheses whether come into existence and ascertain the direction and extent of the hypotheses.We find that fixed assets investment in three industries of Shaanxi failed to reach the efficiency frontier surface over the number of hazy days, on the Ninth Five-Year period, the Tenth Five-Year period and the Eleventh Five-Year period (the first three years), the total factor productivity is always less than 1, especially during the Eleventh Five-Year period (the first three years) the total factor productivity of fixed assets investment is worst, with the average of TFP being 0.745. The technical recession causes the efficiency of fixed assets investment declines. However, the technical efficiency of fixed assets investment plays a positive role on promoting efficiency of investing, in which pure technical efficiency as the key factor affects the technical efficiency. In these factors, the most important factor is scientific and technological progress as affecting the efficiency of fixed assets investment in three industries of Shaanxi, the secondary factor are opening level, investment scale and consumption level, the final factor are environmental damage cost and ability to release labor.At the same time, changes of regression analysis in direction coincides with the assumption’s direction.The conclusions of this paper on improving the efficiency of fixed assets investment in Shaanxi and optimizing industrial structure have the following policy recommendations: Firstly, we should enforce the support to Shaanxi’s science and technology in order to change the unfavorable situation in Shaanxi which the technological progress is not suitable for the industrial structure. Secondly, to improve the soft investment environments, and actively attract foreign capital investment. Thirdly, to optimize industrial investment structure by upgrading industrial structure and expanding properly scale of investment. Finally, to deepen and advance the reform of investment system.更多还原