【作者】 候爽；

【导师】 曹俊文；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 统计学， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 作为我国重点生态保护区,黄河流域的发展始终备受关注。近年来,黄河流域经济发展快速,生态环境有所改善,人民生活水平显著提升。然而,区域之间不协调、不同步的问题还没有得到解决,根据《黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展规划纲要》,不平衡和不充分问题已经成为了沿黄地区发展的最大短板。新型城镇化通过整合城市资源、调配剩余劳动力,能够有效地加强区域联系,促进协调发展,是推动城市经济平稳运行,实现高质量发展的重要保障。本文首先对新型城镇化与高质量发展的内涵进行了界定,并对文章中使用的理论基础进行说明,同时阐述了新型城镇化对高质量发展的影响机制。其次,基于2003—2020年沿黄九省样本数据,构建了评价新型城镇化的综合指标,并测度了绿色全要素生产率指数,将绿色全要素生产率作为高质量发展的代理变量。最后,从线性关系与非线性关系、直接影响与间接影响等角度,分析新型城镇化对黄河流域高质量发展的影响关系。通过理论分析与实证分析,得出了如下结论:(1)黄河流域新型城镇化水平整体较好,但各区域、各省份之间差距明显。下游地区在新型城镇化的发展中的拉动作用最大,其次为中游和上游。三大区域中贡献最大的省份分别是四川省、陕西省与山东省,大部分省份未达到流域整体的平均水平。(2)黄河流域的高质量发展水平较为可观,技术进步对高质量发展的促进作用大于技术效率。其中甘肃、内蒙古、陕西地区的资源投入、经济产出与污染排放之间的比例更加协调,青海、山西等省份的高质量发展水平还有较大提升空间。(3)新型城镇化对高质量发展有直接影响,但还存在着“倒U型”的非线性关系,当城镇化水平达到一定程度时,对高质量发展的边际作用将会递减。(4)新型城镇化通过促进信息化建设、推动金融建设和人才建设,来间接影响高质量发展水平,且影响效应均为正。根据上述研究结果,本文给出了如下建议:加强新型城镇化,实行差异管理;加强信息化建设,打造智慧城市;加强金融建设,跨越经济鸿沟;加强人才建设,厚植新生力量。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a key ecological protection area in China,the development of the Yellow River Basin has always been of great concern.In recent years,the economy of the Yellow River basin has developed rapidly,the ecological environment has improved,and the living standard of the people has improved significantly.However,the problem of non-coordination and non-synchronization between regions has not been solved.According to the "Outline of the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High-quality Development Plan",the problem of imbalance and insufficiency has become the biggest weakness in the development of the region along the Yellow River.By integrating urban resources and allocating surplus labor,new urbanization can effectively strengthen regional ties and promote coordinated development,which is an important guarantee for promoting the smooth operation of urban economy and achieving high-quality development.This thesis first defines the connotation of new urbanization and high-quality development,explains the theoretical basis used in this paper,and expounds the influence mechanism of new urbanization on high-quality development.Secondly,based on the sample data of the nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2003 to 2020,a comprehensive index to evaluate the new urbanization is constructed,and the green total factor productivity index is measured,and the green total factor productivity is regarded as the agent variable of high-quality development.Finally,the impact of new urbanization on the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin is analyzed from the perspective of linear relationship and nonlinear relationship,direct impact and indirect impact.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The overall level of new urbanization in the Yellow River basin is good,but the gap between regions and provinces is obvious.The downstream regions play the largest role in the development of new urbanization,followed by the midstream and upstream.The provinces with the largest contribution in the three regions are Sichuan Province,Shaanxi Province and Shandong Province,most of which have not reached the average level of the whole basin.(2)The level of high-quality development in the Yellow River basin is considerable,and technological progress plays a greater role in promoting high-quality development than technological efficiency.The proportion of resource input,economic output and pollution emissions in Gansu,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi is more coordinated,and the high-quality development level of Qinghai,Shanxi and other provinces still has great room for improvement.(3)New urbanization has a direct impact on high-quality development,but there is also a "inverted U-shaped" nonlinear relationship.When the level of urbanization reaches a certain level,the marginal effect on high-quality development will decline.(4)The new urbanization indirectly affects the high quality development level by promoting information construction,financial construction and talent construction,and the impact effect is positive.Based on the above research results,this thesis gives the following suggestions: strengthen the new urbanization and implement the difference management;Strengthen information construction and build a smart city;Strengthen financial construction and bridge the economic gap;We will strengthen talent development and cultivate new forces.更多还原