【作者】 栗子健；

【导师】 赵晓芳；

【作者基本信息】 西北民族大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国居民的消费升级,消费者在选购乳制品时更加关注其安全性与营养价值,这推动着我国乳制品行业发展走向高端化。虽然奶酪行业存在像公共安全、食品安全等风险,但是国家“三孩政策”的出台、行业规模不断扩大和消费者需求不断增大等有利因素促进了奶酪行业的发展。在此综合背景下,奶酪行业在证券市场上的表现正聚焦着更多投资者的目光。本文以资本价值理论、MM理论和EVA理论为基础,使用EVA模型对妙可蓝多公司进行价值评估。通过对具体会计科目进行调整,计算历史期和预测期EVA值得出评估结果,对其合理性进行分析,随后对评估结果进行分析,得出如下研究结论:1.EVA模型估值准确,市场价值被低估;2.妙可蓝多经营状况较好,但仍有优化提升的空间;3.股票价值对WACC和g都具有敏感性,且WACC对股票价值影响更大。据此本文认为应从妙可蓝多发展和投资者决策两个角度提出对策建议。从妙可蓝多发展角度:1.做好成本预算,降低应收账款过高带来的风险;2.拓宽收入渠道,优化产品结构;3.加强创新产品研发,实现差异化;4.优化资本结构,合理利用杠杆。从投资者决策的角度:投资者在做出投资决策时,不仅要考虑公司发展潜力大、财务指标表现良好等有力因素带来的影响,还要充分考虑行业风险、市场风险和运营风险等不利因素带来的影响。建议投资者在实际做出投资决策时能够理性分析所有因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 As China’s residents upgrade their consumption,consumers are paying more attention to the safety and nutritional value of dairy products when purchasing them,which is driving the development of China’s dairy industry towards high-end.Although there are some risks in the cheese industry,such as the risk of public safety incidents.However,the introduction of the national "three-child policy",the expanding scale of the industry and the increasing consumer demand are favorable factors that promote the development of the cheese industry.Against this backdrop,the performance of the cheese industry in the stock market is attracting the attention of more investors.This paper uses the EVA model to value MILKGROUND based on capital value theory,MM theory and EVA theory.By adjusting specific accounting accounts,calculating EVA values for historical and forecast periods,analyzing the reasonableness of the valuation results,and subsequently analyzing the valuation results,the following research conclusions were reached: 1.The EVA model is accurate in valuation and the market value is undervalued;2.MILKGROUND is in good operating condition,but there is still room for optimization and improvement;3.The stock value is sensitive to both WACC and g,and WACC has a greater impact on stock value.We propose countermeasures from two perspectives,namely,the development of MILKGROUND and investors’ decision making.From the perspective of MILKGROUND’s development,1.do a good job of cost budgeting to reduce the risk caused by accounts receivable;2.broaden revenue channels and optimize product structure 3.strengthen innovative product development to achieve differentiation;4.optimize the capital structure and rationalize the use of leverage.From the perspective of investor decision making: When making investment decisions,investors should not only consider the impact of strong factors such as high growth potential and good performance of financial indicators of the company,but also fully consider the impact of adverse factors such as industry risk,market risk and operational risk.It is recommended that investors be able to rationally analyze all factors when actually making investment decisions.更多还原