教育资源均等化改革对学区房溢价率的影响

【作者】 刘赛赛；

【导师】 张莉；

【作者基本信息】 上海财经大学 ， 资产评估， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的发展,人们对教育的重视程度不断提升,但有限且配置不均的教育资源叠加投机行为等因素,学区热久高不下,对学区房的价值评估也产生了不利的影响。近年来中央及各省市均推出相关政策进行教育资源均等化改革,整治学区房乱象。本文试图通过对上海公平分配高中录取资源政策的分析来研究教育均等化改革对学区房溢价率的影响,并基于分析结果提出相应的合理建议。本文的研究内容主要分为理论研究及实证分析两部分。在理论研究方面,首先梳理了国内外学者有关学区质量对房价的影响及以往政策对房价的影响研究,确认了学区房的资本化确实存在,且是由教育资源配置差异、房地产固定性及其投资属性等多因素形成的。其中,定性研究涉及到了公共服务资本化及公共服务均等化,定量研究部分涉及特征价格模型、边界固定效应模型与双重差分模型,其中,后两者在传统特征价格模型的基础上考虑到了变量遗漏等问题,被学者广泛使用。而在政策效应研究方面,目前国内研究仍集中于限购等政策对整体房价的影响,包括政策对房市降温的效果及其作用有效时间。对于“就近入学”政策,也并未真正解决教育公平的问题,只是将传统的择校费转嫁至房价上。在实证分析方面,本文利用特征价格模型对上海市2020年1月至2021年9月房屋交易的微观数据,以政策发布的时间与学校的信息作为交互项研究全样本在政策发布前后学区房溢价率的变动情况,并针对行政区教育资源的丰富程度、学校层级及房屋属性进行分组研究。其次,本文结合断点回归模型,分别对学区房及非学区房在政策发布前后的房价进行分析,分析学区房溢价率变动的具体原因。本文的贡献在于:(1)在选题方面,由于上海均衡分布高中录取名额政策颁布时间较晚,目前并未有关于该政策对住宅价格影响的实证分析,通过本文的研究能够及时了解政策发布以来的效果;(2)在研究内容方面,考虑到不同区域重点高中资源分布的丰富程度差异,以及同一区域不同房屋属性的差异,分类研究政策的影响;(3)在研究方法上,利用RDD对政策发布的效果准确识别,更好地估计该政策对住宅价格的影响,也有助于对房地产的准确评估。最终得出的结论有:(1)教育均等化改革对学区房溢价率有抑制作用,上海均衡分布高中录取名额政策的发布使其对应的中学学区房溢价率下降8.4%;(2)从行政区分布来看,政策的发布对教育资源丰富的行政区影响更为显著;从学校层级来看,政策发布对市重点中学范围内学区房的影响比对区重点中学范围内学区房影响更大;从户型来看,小户型的学区房溢价率更具“刚性”;(3)政策对学区房溢价率的影响内在原因为教育均等化改革在一定程度上抑制了学区房房价的上涨,即政策发布后学区房房价的涨幅低于非学区房。针对优质的教育硬件设施,考虑到各地方政府财政能力的差异,应当发挥中央财政的作用,统筹安排全国学校的基础教育设施;针对优质的教师资源,一方面可以充分利用互联网的力量通过远程教学等手段实现“名师共享”,教师们也通过互动平台增加了与其他老师的沟通机会。此外,通过提高弱校教师的工资以缩小校际间教师薪酬的差异,减少师资外流;另一方面,可以通过强化师范学校的教学质量从供给的根源上提高教师的水平。针对房地产评估,需要认识到教育均等化导向类的政策对于房价,尤其是学区房的房价会产生较大的冲击。针对房地产市场,政府应持续强调“房住不炒”,坚决遏制投机行为,对学区房交易带来的超额收益可以收归财政,以此来减少房地产市场的投机行为,抑制“学区热”。在评估房地产的价值时,需要考虑现时的政策对其周边学校带来的溢价变化,从而对房地产的价值进行全面的评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of China’s economy,more and more attention has been paid to education,and the school district is hot for a long time due to the limited and uneven allocation of educational resources and other factors.It also has a negative impact on the evaluation of school district houses.In recent years,the central government and all provinces and cities have launched relevant policies to reform the equalization of educational resources and rectify the housing chaos in the school district.This paper attempts to study the impact of education equalization reform on school-quality premium through the analysis of the policy of fair distribution of high school admission resources in Shanghai,and put forward corresponding reasonable suggestions based on the analysis results.The research content of this paper is mainly divided into theoretical research and empirical analysis of two parts.First of all,in terms of theoretical research,this paper sorts out the domestic and foreign scholars’ research on the impact of school district quality on housing price and the impact of previous policies on housing price,confirming that the capitalization of school district housing does exist,and is formed by multiple factors such as differences in educational resource allocation,real estate fixation and investment attributes.Among them,qualitative research involves capitalization and equalization of public services,while quantitative research involves hedonic price model,boundary fixed effect model and difference-in-differences model.Among them,the latter two models are widely used by scholars on the basis of traditional hedonic price model considering variable omission and other problems.In terms of policy effect studies,domestic studies still focus on the impact of purchase restriction policies on the housing price,including the cooling effect of policies on the housing market and their effective time.As for "nearby enrollment" policy,it does not really solve the problem of education equity,but only shifts the traditional school choice fees to the housing price.In terms of empirical analysis,this paper uses the hedonic price model to analyze the micro data of housing transactions in Shanghai from January 2020 to September2021,and takes the time of policy implementation and school information as an interactive item to study the changes of school-quality premium before and after the release of the policy The school level and housing attributes are grouped to study the impact of the release of policies on the school-quality premium.Secondly,combined with the regression discontinuity design,this paper analyzes the house prices of school district housing and non-school district housing before and after the policy release,and analyzes the specific reasons for the change of school-quality premium.The contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)Due to the promulgation time of the balanced distribution of senior high school admission quota policy in Shanghai,there is no empirical analysis on the impact of the policy on housing prices.Through this research,we can timely understand the effect since the release of the policy.(2)Considering the differences in the distribution of resources of key high schools in different regions and the differences in different housing attributes in the same region,the impact of classification research policies.(3)Using RDD to accurately identify the effect of policy release,better estimate the impact of the policy on housing prices,and also contribute to the accurate evaluation of real estate.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The reform of educational equalization has an inhibitory effect on the housing premium rate of school districts.The release of Shanghai 316 policy has reduced the housing premium rate of middle school districts by 8.4%;(2)From the perspective of the distribution of administrative regions,the release of policies has a more significant impact on administrative regions with rich educational resources;From the perspective of school level,the policy release has a greater impact on the school district housing of municipal key middle schools than that of district key middle schools;From the perspective of house type,the school district housing premium rate of small house type is more "rigid";(3)The internal reason for the impact of the policy on the school district housing premium rate is that the education equalization reform has restrained the rise of school district housing prices,that is,after the release of the policy,the rise of school district housing prices is lower than that of non-school district housing.In view of the high-quality educational hardware facilities,considering the differences in financial capacity of different regions,the role of central finance should be brought into play to make overall arrangements for the national school educational infrastructure.For high-quality teacher resources,on the one hand,teachers can make full use of the power of the Internet to achieve "famous teacher sharing" through distance teaching and other means,and at the same time,teachers can increase the opportunity to communicate with other teachers through the interactive platform.In addition,by raising the salaries of teachers in weak schools to narrow the differences between schools;On the other hand,teachers’ level can be improved from the source of supply by strengthening the teaching quality of normal schools.For real estate evaluation,it is necessary to realize that the policy of education equalization orientation will have a great impact on housing price,especially the housing price of school district.From the real estate market perspective,the government should continue to emphasize "housing and not speculation",and resolutely curb speculation.And the excess income brought by school district housing transactions can be collected to the finance,so as to reduce speculation in the real estate market and curb "school district fever".When evaluating the value of real estate,it is necessary to consider the changes in the premium brought by the current policy to the surrounding schools,so as to make a comprehensive evaluation of the value of real estate.更多还原