全球稀土贸易网络演化及影响因素分析

【作者】 熊超；

【导师】 于桂海；

【作者基本信息】 贵州财经大学 ， 金融统计与风险管理， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界各国科技实力的提升,意识到稀土是推动国民经济高质量发展和全球经济结构调整的战略性关键金属矿产资源。目前,各国都已出台将稀土资源纳入国家战略资源储备的政策。但是稀土资源不像一些其他的金属或石油资源一样属于大量消耗的资源,稀土资源稍微用一点就能发挥出极大的战略意义,像各国的通信、航空航天、能源材料、先进武器等高科技行业离不开稀土资源。研究全球稀土贸易格局,不仅能够反映稀土贸易主体对稀土的供需结构,同时说明稀土贸易主体在国际稀土贸易的角色地位,可为稀土贸易领域的研究提供新的视角。本文着眼于国际稀土贸易的格局演变和影响因素分析,首先利用联合国商品贸易数据库中的稀土产品数据,构建1999年至2020年全球稀土贸易加权与无权网络,分别从贸易关系和贸易额的角度,利用社会网络分析方法的网络密度、中心性、网络强度、小世界系数、块模型、网络标准熵等多个网络指标研究不同国家地位及网络整体结构演变,进一步利用空间计量经济学中Moran指数研究稀土贸易是否存在空间相似性。最后,利用动态指数随机图模型分析各国稀土贸易形成的影响因素及演化分析,网络模体分析网络拓扑结构对于网络的影响。本文根据上述方法,得到如下结论:(1)利用社会网络分析方法得到2008年全球金融危机和2011年稀土价格暴涨对22年间网络存在较大影响,使各国稀土进出口趋于无序状态;(2)采用Moran指数进行空间相关性分析得到各国倾向与相邻国家开展稀土进口贸易,存在一定空间聚集性;(3)利用网络模体分析方法得到国家间开展稀土贸易主要由一个国家出口多国、互惠、一国向多国进口、围绕近邻稀土丰富国家开展贸易所驱动的;(4)利用动态指数随机图模型得到相同GDP水平之间的国家、世界贸易组织(WTO)成员国之间对于稀土贸易也存在一定影响,但对稀土贸易网络形成的影响程度较低,同时这22年间各国稀土贸易网络的联系比较稳定,反映稀土资源匮乏的国家对资源丰富国家的长期依赖。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the improvement of the scientific and technological strength of countries around the world,it is realized that rare earth is a strategic key metal mineral resource to promote the high-quality development of national economy and global economic restructuring.At present,all countries have introduced the policy of including rare earth resources into national strategic resource reserves.However,unlike some other metals or petroleum resources that are consumed in large quantities,rare earth resources can be of great strategic importance when used slightly,like the communication,aerospace,energy materials,advanced weapons and other high-tech industries of various countries cannot do without rare earth resources.The study of global rare earth trade pattern can not only reflect the supply and demand structure of rare earths by rare earth trade subjects,but also illustrate the role position of rare earth trade subjects in international rare earth trade,which can provide a new perspective for the research in the field of rare earth trade.This paper focuses on the evolution of the international rare earth trade pattern and the analysis of influencing factors.Firstly,using the rare earth product data in the United Nations Commodity trade database,the paper constructs the global rare earth trade weighted and powerless network from 1999 to 2020.From the perspective of trade relations and trade volume,network density,centrality,network strength,small-world coefficient,block model,network standard entropy and other network indicators of social network analysis method are used to study the status of different countries and the evolution of the overall structure of the network.Further,Moran’s Index in spatial econometrics is used to study whether there is spatial similarity in rare earth trade.Finally,the temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM)is used to analyze the influencing factors and evolution of rare earth trade among countries,and the local motif impact analysis the influence of network topology on the network.Based on the above methods,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Using the social network analysis method,it is found that the global financial crisis in 2008 and the spike in rare earth prices in 2011 had a great impact on the network in the past 22 years,which made the import and export of rare earth tend to be disorderly;(2)The spatial correlation analysis of Moran’s index shows that countries tend to carry out rare earth import trade with neighboring countries,and there is a certain spatial clustering;(3)The local motif impact analysis method is used to obtain that the rare earth trade between countries is mainly driven by one country exporting to many countries,mutual model,one country importing to many countries,and trade around neighboring rare earth rich countries;(4)Using the TERGM,it can be concluded that countries with the same GDP level and members of the World Trade Organization(WTO)also have a certain influence on rare earth trade,but the influence on the formation of rare earth trade network is relatively low.Meanwhile,the connection of rare earth trade network among countries is relatively stable in the past 22 years.It reflects the long-term dependence of countries lacking rare earth resources on resource-rich countries.更多还原