【作者】 李希翼；

【导师】 范德胜；

【作者基本信息】 北京外国语大学 ， 外交学， 2023， 硕士

【副题名】基于包括“一带一路”沿线国家在内的实证研究

【摘要】 二十一世纪以来,世界经济发展在国际社会繁荣稳定的宏观环境下取得了优异成果,中国作为经济全球化时代的积极参与者和领导者,始终秉持高度对外开放的基本国策。但自2008年金融危机以来,多种国际突发事件为全球与区域间经贸往来大大提高了难度,因此在风高浪急的外部不确定环境下实现与国际社会合作“由危转机”的破局成为我国当前时代发展的迫切需要,也是我国未来继续保持扩大对外开放、实现中国式现代化的应有之义。本文旨在探索世界不确定性对我国海外基础设施投资的影响,通过搜集2005年-2020年度我国对包括“一带一路”沿线在内124个国家的海外基础设施投资历史数据以及对世界范围内各投资东道国不确定性进行量化的方法,从而搭建时间因素固定效应模型进行定量分析。之后,本文进行相关性分析、异质性检验、稳健性检验等实证过程最终得出相应结论,为我国海外基础设施投资布局、区位选择提出适当建议。基于上述的计量模型与理论分析,研究最后得出的结论包括:(1)世界不确定性对我国海外基础设施投资呈显著的抑制作用,即外部环境不确定性越高,我国海外基础设施投资水平则越低。(2)相比于非“一带一路”沿线国家,世界不确定性对于“一带一路”沿线国家的抑制作用更为显著,且带来的负面影响效应更大。(3)世界不确定性对我国海外基础设施投资的影响不仅在当年期呈显著负面效应,且同时在滞后一期亦存在明显的抑制效应。(4)我国海外基础设施投资不仅受到外部宏观环境不确定性的影响,同时与投资东道国当地的自然资源禀赋呈正相关关系,且与当地平均劳动力价格显著负相关。在完成实证分析后,本文根据结果提出如下政策建议:第一,精准把握外部不确定性风险,主动抢抓海外基础设施投资机遇。第二,洞察海外基础设施发展需求,推进与各国和地区的投资合作。第三,加快推进“一带一路”增资扩容,不断完善与其沿线国家贸易往来和基础设施投资的规则机制。第四,依据世界各投资东道国自然资源与劳动力价格水平等生产禀赋优势,进一步优化我国未来海外基础设施投资的战略布局与区位选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the millennium,the development of the world economy has achieved excellent results in the context of international prosperity and stability,and China,as an active participant and leader in the era of economic globalization,has always upheld the basic state policy of being highly open to the outside world.However,since the financial crisis in 2008,various unexpected international events have greatly increased the difficulty of global and inter-regional economic and trade exchanges,which leads to an urgent need for China’s development in the current era to achieve a breakthrough in cooperation with the international community "from crisis to opportunity" in the windy and uncertain external environment,and it is also an urgent need for China to continue to keep expanding its openness to the outside world in the future.This paper aims to explore the impact of world uncertainty on China’s overseas infrastructure investment by collecting historical data on China’s overseas infrastructure investment in 124 countries including those along the "Belt and Road" Initiative from 2005 to 2020 and by quantifying the uncertainty of each host country worldwide,so that a time-dependent fixed-effects model is constructed for quantitative analysis.After that,this paper conducts correlation analysis,heterogeneity test,robustness test and other empirical processes to draw conclusions and make appropriate suggestions for the geographical distribution of overseas infrastructure investment in China.Based on the above-mentioned econometric model and theoretical analysis,the final conclusions of the study include:(1)World uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s overseas infrastructure investment,i.e.,the higher the uncertainty of the external environment,the lower the level of China’s overseas infrastructure investment.(2)Compared with non-Belt and Road countries,world uncertainty has a more significant inhibitory effect on countries along the Belt and Road,and the negative effect is greater.(3)The impact of world uncertainty on China’s overseas infrastructure investment not only has a significant negative effect in the current period,but also has a significant inhibitory effect in the lagged period.(4)China’s overseas infrastructure investment is not only affected by the uncertainty of the external macro environment,but also positively correlated with the local natural resource endowment of the host country,and significantly negatively correlated with the average local labor price.After completing the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations based on the results:First,accurately supervise the risk of external uncertainty and proactively seize the opportunities of overseas infrastructure investment.Second,gain insight into overseas infrastructure development needs and promote investment cooperation with countries and regions.Third,accelerate the expansion of The Belt and Road Initiative and continuously improve the rules and mechanisms for trade and infrastructure investment with countries along its route.Fourth,based on the advantages of production endowments such as natural resources and labor price levels of the world’s host countries,further optimize the strategic layout and location selection of China’s future overseas infrastructure investment.更多还原