【作者】 佟文晶；

【导师】 纪颖波； 李浩；

【作者基本信息】 北方工业大学 ， 建筑与土木工程（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 建设工程质量监管是建筑业健康可持续发展的重要保障,保险作为其中一种有效的风险转移与辅助管理方式越来越多地被采用。近年来大力推广的工程质量潜在缺陷保险(IDI保险)就是其中一种,IDI保险可以有效提升建筑工程质量水平,但同时也需要规范的建筑工程质量风险评估服务(TIS服务)作为支撑。但在国内现行管理模式下,建筑工程质量风险评估服务如何帮助保险公司识别并规避工程质量潜在缺陷以控制质量风险还需要系统研究。本文在分析工程质量风险形成路径的基础上,构建工程质量风险控制模型,以解决上述问题。主要研究内容如下:1.分析了建筑工程质量风险形成机理。以IDI基本承保范围内的工程质量潜在缺陷为导向,辨识了影响结构安全和使用功能的10个建筑工程质量风险事件;以基本建设阶段为划分依据识别了35个工程质量风险因素;应用群决策层次分析法分析了风险因素与风险事件因果映射关系及权重,应用DEMATEL-ISM方法划分了风险因素层级关系、确定了重要因素。2.构建了基于贝叶斯网络的建筑工程质量风险控制模型。运用贝叶斯网络理论,将建筑工程质量风险形成机理分析结果作为专家背景先验知识,计算工程质量风险事件发生概率,即工程质量风险大小;模型推理分析确定各工程质量风险的关键风险因素、敏感性风险因素和最大致因链。研究得到了影响结构安全和功能安全的不同质量风险控制要点。3.结合工程项目案例对建筑工程质量风险控制模型进行了验证应用。案例研究表明,模型预测结果可靠,验证了建筑工程质量风险控制模型的科学性与可行性。本文按照机理分析、模型构建与实例验证的研究路线,揭示了建筑工程质量风险的形成路径,构建了保险背景下的建筑工程质量风险控制模型。研究成果为建筑工程质量风险控制实施提供了理论依据与量化评估工具,为我国IDI保险的发展和TIS服务的规范完善提供支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 The quality supervision of construction projects is an important guarantee for the healthy and sustainable development of the construction industry.As one of the effective risk transfer methods and auxiliary management methods,insurance is increasingly used.The construction quality latent defect insurance(IDI insurance),which has been vigorously promoted in recent years,is one of them.This type of insurance can effectively improve the quality of construction projects,but it also requires standardized construction quality risk assessment services(TIS services)as support.However,under the current domestic management mode,how the construction quality risk assessment service can help insurance companies identify and avoid potential defects under IDI insurance to control quality risks still needs systematic research.This paper builds a project quality risk control model to solve the above problems on the basis of analyzing the formation path and key causative factors of project quality risk.The main research contents are as follows:1.The formation mechanism of construction quality risk is analyzed.Guided by the potential defects of construction engineering quality,10 construction engineering quality risk events affecting structural safety and use function were identified,and 35 engineering quality risk factors were identified based on the basic construction stage;The causal mapping relationship and weight of risk factors and risk events,the DEMATEL-ISM method is used to divide the hierarchical relationship of risk factors,and the important risk factors and levels of different risk events are determined.2.The construction quality risk control model based on the Bayesian network is constructed.Using Bayesian network theory,the analysis results of construction engineering quality mechanism are used as the prior knowledge of the expert background to access the model,and the probability of engineering quality risk events occurring is calculated,that is,the magnitude of engineering quality risk;the key risk factors of engineering quality risk are determined by reasoning analysis.Different quality risk control points affecting structural safety and functional safety are obtained.3.The construction engineering quality risk control model is verified and applied in combination with engineering project cases.The case study shows that the prediction results of the model are consistent with the experience judgment results of the project professional technicians,which verifies the scientificity and feasibility of the construction quality risk control model.According to the research route of mechanism analysis,model construction,and example verification,this paper reveals the formation path and key cause analysis of construction engineering quality risk and builds an applicable construction engineering quality risk control model under the background of insurance.The research results provide theoretical basis and quantitative evaluation tools for the implementation of construction quality risk control,and provide support for the development of IDI insurance and the standardization and improvement of tis services in China.更多还原