【作者】 李金磊；

【导师】 王磊；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 区域经济学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 结构优化是新常态下中国经济发展的重要特点,通过供给侧结构改革来加快建设现代产业体系,推动经济转型升级,是实现经济高质量发展源源不断的动力。现代服务业作为新兴产业的核心内容,可以发挥作为高端产业对整个产业体系的全面支撑和广泛辐射带动作用,对当前中国产业转型和经济结构调整的意义重大。但目前中国经济的高速增长并未带来服务业结构的显著优化,加快发展现代服务业,推动生产性服务业向专业化和价值链高端延伸,破解后工业化时期服务业结构升级缓慢这一难题成为当务之急。目前,我国区域经济发展模式逐渐转为跨越行政管辖范围的城市群和都市圈经济,区域一体化发展战略已经上升为国家战略。随着区域整合发展加速,区域间各种显性与隐性的要素流通屏障不断打破,势必将形成新一轮的要素集聚,加快要素资源寻找适宜的发展空间并进行适应性匹配的步伐。在这一进程中,对于经济发展水平相对较低的地区而言,既可能通过承接产业转移实现服务业结构升级、经济腾飞,也可能会因为资源外流导致产业发展陷入低端锁定。可以推测,区域一体化发展很可能是影响现代服务业发展和服务业结构升级的重要因素,但其作用机制如何、具体影响几何并不明晰。中国服务业结构升级路阻且长,区域一体化发展方兴未艾,探究区域一体化发展影响服务业结构升级的基本规律具有重要意义。基于此,本文在阐述区域一体化发展影响服务业结构升级的作用机制的基础上,以2005-2019年长三角地区41个地级及以上城市为样本,将长三角经济协调会扩容作为一项准自然实验,实证研究区域一体化发展对新进城市服务业结构升级的作用方向和作用大小,并探究其影响机制。鉴于地方政府官员出于政治晋升的目的会采取措施干预地区经济发展、进而通过扭曲资源配置影响服务业结构升级的典型事实,本文进一步探讨地方政府行为在区域一体化发展影响服务业结构升级中的作用。本文的主要研究结果表明:(1)区域一体化发展在短时间内显著抑制了新进城市的服务业结构升级,在解决内生性问题并进行平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID估计以及排除其他产业政策的干扰后,区域一体化发展对新进城市服务业结构升级的抑制作用依然稳健。(2)时期异质性分析发现,这一抑制作用呈现先增后降直至消失的趋势。空间异质性分析发现,浙江省城市服务业结构升级受区域一体化发展的抑制作用最强,安徽省次之,江苏省城市受影响不明显。(3)机制分析发现,区域一体化通过推动要素流动以及促进要素价格均等化这两条路径阻碍新进城市服务业结构的升级。(4)地方政府的财政支出和投资行为的偏好会扭曲要素资源配置,加剧对新进城市服务业结构升级的抑制作用。(5)进一步分析发展,区域一体化发展对原位城市服务业结构升级表现为促进作用,对长三角城市群服务业结构升级整体表现为抑制作用;一体化发展政策还会增加服务业企业生产成本,在微观层面上阻碍服务业发展。基于上述分析,本文提出如下政策建议:(1)立足于比较优势和发展需要进行产业分工,形成错位发展、合作协调发展的态势。中心城市要与周边城市形成水平分工,实现“腾笼换鸟”,新进城市要立足于城市职能和产业优势,抓住区域内产业转移这一契机推动服务业结构升级。(2)建立区域利益协调机制,提高政策协同联动。在城市群的整体框架下统筹规划服务业结构的优化升级,避免地方之间的利益冲突和恶意竞争。探索产业保护补偿以及利益共享机制,有效调动新进城市融入城市群的积极性。(3)打破行政壁垒,释放市场需求潜力。建设区域内统一大市场,实现资源在更大范围内的合理布局,以及市场需求的相互溢出,从供给侧和需求侧同时发力实现产业结构升级。(4)坚持“政府引导,市场主导”,减少政府的干预。地方政府加快职能转型,激励地方政府做好平台搭建、政策保障、土地供应等服务保障,在区域协调发展中发挥主导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Structural optimization is an important feature of China’s economy under the new normal.Accelerating the development of a modern industrial system and promoting economic transformation and upgrading through supply-side structural reform is the continuous driving force for achieving sound and rapid economic development.Modern service industry,the core content of emerging industries,is capable to play both a comprehensive supporting role and a wide-ranging role as a high-end industry to the entire industrial system,demonstrating great significance to current industrial transformation and economic structure adjustment in China.Nevertheless,the current rapid growth of China’s economy has not brought about prominent upgrading of the structure of service industry.Therefore,it is imperative to speed up the development of the modern service industry,promote the extension of the producer service industry to the specialization and the high-end of the value chain,and solve the problem of the slow upgrading of the service industry structure in the post-industrial period.Nowadays,Chinese regional economic development model has gradually transformed into urban agglomeration economy that crosses administrative boundaries,and development strategy featuring regional integration has been elevated to a national strategy.With the acceleration of the development of regional integration,flow barriers of various explicit and implicit factors among regions are continuously being eradicated,which is bound to formulate a brand-new round of factor agglomeration as well as hasten the pace of factor resources to find suitable development space and conduct adaptive matching.In this process,low-level regions are feasible to achieve upgrading of the structure of service industry and economic boom by carrying out industrial transfer,and they might also make their industrial development be locked in low-end due to resource outflow.It can be speculated that the development of regional integration is likely to be a critical factor that exerts influence on the development of modern service industry and the upgrading of the structure of service industry,nonetheless,its function mechanism and the specific effects are not clear.In view of the long road to upgrading the structure of China’s service industry,and the development of regional integration is in the ascendant,it is of great significance to explore the basic laws that the development of regional integration affects the structural upgrading of the service industry.Based on elaborating the mechanism of regional integration development affecting the structural upgrading of the service industry,this paper takes 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2019 as samples,and takes the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Coordination Council as a Quasi-natural experiments,empirically study the direction and magnitude of the role of regional integration development on the service industry’s structural upgrading in new cities,and explore its impact mechanism.In view of the typical fact that local government officials will take measures to intervene in regional economic development for the purpose of political promotion,and then affect the structural upgrading of the service industry by distorting resource allocation,this paper further explores the role of local government behavior in the impact of regional integration development on the structural upgrading of the service industry.effect.The main conclusions of this paper show that:(1)The development of regional integration has significantly inhibited the upgrading of the service industry structure in new cities in a short period of time.Considering the endogeneity problem and conducting parallel trend tests,placebo tests,PSM-DID estimation and after eliminating the interference of other industrial policies,the inhibitory effect of regional integration development on the structural upgrading of the service industry in new cities is still stable.(2)The analysis of period heterogeneity found that this inhibitory effect showed a trend of increasing at first,then decreasing and disappearing.The analysis of spatial heterogeneity found that the structural upgrading of the urban service industry in Zhejiang Province was the most inhibited by the development of regional integration,followed by Anhui Province,and cities in Jiangsu Province were not significantly affected.(3)Mechanism analysis found that regional integration hinders the upgrading of the service industry structure of new cities by promoting the flow of factors and promoting the equalization of factor prices.(4)The local government’s preference for fiscal expenditure and investment behavior will distort the allocation of factor resources and aggravate the inhibitory effect on the structural upgrading of the service industry in new cities.(5)Further analysis of the development shows that the regional integration development plays an important role in promoting the upgrading of the service industry structure in the in original cities,and it has a restraining effect on the overall upgrading of the service industry structure in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration;the integrated development policy will also increase the production cost of service industry enterprises.It hinders the development of the service industry at the micro level.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:(1)Based on comparative advantages and development needs,industrial division of labor will form a situation of dislocation development and cooperative and coordinated development.Central cities should form a horizontal division of labor with surrounding cities to achieve "vacant cages for birds".New cities should be based on urban functions and industrial advantages,and seize the opportunity of industrial transfer within the region to realize the upgrading of service industry structure.(2)Establish a regional interest coordination mechanism to improve policy coordination.Under the overall framework of the urban agglomeration,plan the optimization and upgrading of the service industry structure to avoid conflicts of interest and malicious competition among localities.Explore industrial protection compensation and benefit sharing mechanisms to effectively mobilize the enthusiasm of new cities to integrate into urban agglomerations.(3)Break down administrative barriers and release market demand potential.Unify the large market in the construction area,realize the rational distribution of resources on a larger scale,and the mutual overflow of market demand,and make efforts to upgrade the industrial structure from the supply side and the demand side at the same time.(4)Adhere to "government guidance,market leadership" and reduce government intervention.Local governments should speed up the transformation of functions,provide service guarantees,such as platform construction,policy guarantees,land supply,and play a leading role in regional coordinated development.更多还原