【作者】 陈俊西；

【导师】 罗莉；

【作者基本信息】 云南财经大学 ， 会计（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 PPP模式在我国的推行期间较短,用PPP模式进行项目建设旨在提升对应建设地区政府机构的财政管理水平,减轻政府、社会各资方的还债压力。由于高速公路PPP模式的使用时间短,所以理论或者实践方面都存在一定程度缺陷,无法更为有效合理地控制项目风险,导致不少应用PPP模式的项目没能获得成功,这对政府、对社会投资方和社会公众的利益都造成了损失。高速公路项目本身就蕴含较多风险,外加PPP模式涉及的诸多政策限制和特殊建设结构,导致对财务风险管理的多方面考虑都有所欠缺。基于为高速公路PPP项目建设和运营提出有效的财务风险管理意见的前提,本文围绕高速公路PPP项目的财务风险管理问题进行研究。PPP模式下进行的高速公路项目涉及较多财务风险,本文针对我国高速公路PPP项目进行研究。以ZY高速项目为例,对财务风险管管理进行研究。本文首先概述研究背景、研究思路和方法,梳理与PPP项目、财务风险管理和PPP项目财务风险管理相关的文献,基于一些合理选取的基础理论,例如:公私合营理论、项目价值评估理论与可行性研究理论,为文章理论研究做铺垫。在梳理好文献与理论后,本文对财务风险和财务风险管理的相关理论展开列述和分析,对PPP项目开展的必要性和可研性进行阐释。随后,本文从整个高速公路的行业背景着手,结合数据分析我国高速公路的建设现状,着重分析财务风险管理所涵盖的问题,引入ZY高速公路项目,列述本项目的实施背景、运营内容,阐述本项目PPP项目采用的建设框架,识别各项财务风险,按融资、投资、运营、回收期的高速公路建设周期顺序进行研究,分析项目涉及的税率、利率、建设回收期、现金流量、内部收益率等方面的变动对项目财务风险的影响,结合新冠疫情的影响分析运营风险、融资资金成本风险等属于财务风险范畴的风险,根据ZY高速公路资产负债表、现金流量表和利润表中的相关数据,进行经济费用效益分析,聚焦财务风险,做出很多套敏感性分析,对计算后得到的结果进行研究。接下来,本文重点针对财务风险的分摊问题进行研究,对高速公路PPP项目在实际的建设和运营过程中存在的可控财务风险开展分析,给出具体调整意见。再结合所有的分析和研究,得出合理的结论,力求完整且全面地反映本文的研究宗旨。本文经过分析ZY高速公路PPP项目涉及的财务风险,从整体上对该项目涉及的财务风险进行研究,结果表明:税率、现金流入量、流出量、新冠疫情和财务风险非合理分摊等方面都会对财务效益造成不同程度的负面影响,其中税率和新冠疫情影响较大,导致项目收益不足、回收期加长,进而损害政府和社会各资方的计划收益。所以应当制定与财务风险管理相关的有效策略,结合研究结果和财务风险管理体系现存问题,给出合理整改意见,旨在达成高效管理、规避或者减小财务风险的目的,希望能在高速公路PPP项目的财务风险管理问题方面给出具有理论意义和实践意义的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 PPP model has been carried out for a short period in China.The purpose of using PPP model to carry out project construction is to improve the level of financial management of government institutions in corresponding construction areas and reduce the debt repayment pressure of government and social investors.Due to the short use time of PPP mode in expressway,there are some defects in theory or practice,which can not control project risks more effectively and reasonably.As a result,many projects applying PPP mode failed to succeed,which caused losses to the interests of the government,social investors and the public.The expressway project itself contains many risks,plus the PPP model involved in many policy restrictions and special construction structure,resulting in the lack of consideration of financial risk management in many aspects.Based on the premise of putting forward effective financial risk management opinions for the construction and operation of expressway PPP projects,this paper studies the financial risk management issues of expressway PPP projects.The expressway project under PPP mode involves many financial risks.This paper studies the expressway PPP project in China.Taking ZY high-speed project as an example,this paper studies the financial risk management.Firstly,this paper summarizes the research background,research ideas and methods,and sorts out the literature related to PPP projects,financial risk management and PPP project financial risk management.Based on some reasonably selected basic theories,such as public-private partnership theory,project value evaluation theory and feasibility study theory,this paper lays a foundation for the theoretical research of this paper.After sorting out the literature and theories,this paper describes and analyzes the theories related to financial risk and financial risk management,and explains the necessity and feasibility of PPP project development.Then,this text set about from the whole highway industry background,combined with the data analysis of the construction of highway in our country the status quo,focusing on the analysis of financial risk management covers the problems,the introduction of ZY highway project,4project implementation background,operational content,with the project,the PPP project for the construction of the framework,identify the financial risk,according to the financing,investment,operation sequence,the payback period of highway construction cycle,analysis of tax rate,interest rate,construction project involves the payback period,cash flow and internal rate of return changes the influence of the financial risk of the project,Combined with analysis of the influence of new crown outbreak of operational risk,financing cost of capital risk belongs to the risk of financial risk category,according to the ZY highway the relevant data from the balance sheet,cash flow statement and profit statement,an economic cost-benefit analysis,focusing on financial risk,and make many sets of sensitivity analysis,the calculated results were studied.Next,this paper focuses on the allocation of financial risks,analyzes the controllable financial risks in the actual construction and operation of the PPP project of expressway,and gives specific adjustment suggestions.Then combine all the analysis and research,draw a reasonable conclusion,and strive to reflect the research purpose of this paper completely and comprehensively.After analyzing ZY highway PPP project involves financial risk,and on the overall financial risk of the project involves the research,the results show that the tax rate,cash inflow,outflow,a new outbreak of crown and the reasonable allocation of financial risk will cause varying degrees of negative effect to financial benefits,including tax rates and greater influence on the outbreak of the new champions league,lead to project earnings and payback period lengthen,thus hurting the plans of the government and all social management.So shall formulate effective strategies related to financial risk management,combining with the results and the financial risk management system existing problem and give reasonable rectification opinions,designed to achieve the purpose of efficient management,avoid or reduce the financial risk,hoping to highway PPP project financial risk management problems has theoretical significance and practical significance of reference are given.更多还原