【作者】 廉雅娟；

【导师】 高艳；

【作者基本信息】 河北经贸大学 ， 世界经济， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以来,经济全球化进程不断加深,国际分工环节不断细化,全球价值链(GVC)逐渐形成。中国自加入世界贸易组织以来,积极参与国际分工,但由于缺乏核心技术和自主知识产权,仅能以成本优势嵌入全球价值链,“低端锁定”明显,且近年,新兴经济体在成本上的“供给替代”作用逐渐显现,中国制造业提升GVC地位是必要的。此外,美国针对中国的高新技术产业,不断发动贸易摩擦,冲击中国高新技术企业的发展,同时,美国与墨西哥、加拿大签订了《美墨加协定》,里面含有针对“非市场经济国家”的“毒丸条款”,这在一定程度上影响了中国的对外经济交流,杜绝了中国经济的上升空间。且新冠肺炎的全球蔓延,给中国制造业升级带来了更大的挑战。中国要想实现经济安全,并在国际分工中掌握主导权,只有不断提升制造业的GVC地位。那如何实现中国制造业GVC地位的提升呢?本文分别利用2018年发布的TIVA数据库和2016年发布的WIOD数据库测算出了衡量GVC地位的两个指标,精准给出了中国制造业GVC地位,并找到了影响制造业GVC地位的因素,进行了实证分析,最后,根据实证结果,给出了提升中国制造业GVC地位的政策建议。本文共分为六部分。第一章是绪论,先阐述了研究背景和研究意义,再从GVC地位测算和GVC地位的影响因素两个角度梳理了文献,同时,介绍了本文的研究内容和研究方法,并指出本文的创新之处,即同时测算了中国制造业GVC的“经济定位”和“物理定位”,并在制造业GVC地位的影响因素实证中将贸易摩擦和全球金融危机作为解释变量引入模型。第二章是理论基础概述,从国际分工理论、GVC理论的演进以及制造业GVC地位影响因素机理三个方面进行了总结。第三章为GVC地位的测算方法,本文给出了两种测算方法,GVC地位指数和产业上游度指数,分别用来测量GVC地位的“经济定位”和“物理定位”。第四章为中国制造业及其GVC地位的发展现状,首先从货物贸易方式、盈利能力以及产业内贸易程度分析中国制造业发展的整体状况,其次,从经济地位、物理地位以及与国际比较三个方面分析中国制造业GVC地位的现状。第五章为中国制造业GVC地位影响因素分析,利用“成本发现”模型,从理论上给出了制造业GVC地位影响因素的依据,然后,利用2018年发布的TIVA数据库以及2016年发布的WIOD数据库,对中国制造业GVC地位影响因素进行了实证分析。第六章为总结、政策建议及展望,本文结论有:第一,中国制造业GVC地位指数提升更多是由中间投入环节规模的扩大引起的;第二,通过国际比较,中国制造业GVC地位在具体行业仍与其他国家存在差距;第三,实证结果显示,R&D投入强度、制造业服务化水平以及对外直接投资对中国制造业GVC地位指数产生负向影响,资本密集度、贸易摩擦以及制造业服务化水平对中国制造业产业上游度产生正向影响。根据实证结果,本文为中国制造业GVC地位提升提出了政策建议,如合理配置高质量外资、推动科技成果转化、提高服务化水平等,然后,指出了该论文的不足,即影响因素选取存在局限性以及由于TIVA数据库更新数据有限,样本数据较少,无法进一步对不同要素密集型行业GVC地位的提升进行实证分析,最后,提出了未来展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1990 s,the process of economic globalization has been deepening,the international division of labor has been refining,and the global value chain(GVC)has gradually formed.Since China joined the world trade organization,it has actively participated in the international division of labor.However,due to the lack of core technology and independent intellectual property rights,it can only be embedded in the global value chain with cost advantage,"low-end locking" is obvious.In recent years,the "supply substitution" role of emerging economies in cost has gradually emerged,so it is necessary for China’s manufacturing industry to enhance the status of GVC.In addition,the United States constantly launched trade frictions against China’s high-tech industries,which impacted the development of China’s hightech enterprises.At the same time,the United States signed the agreement,"U.S.-MexicoCanada Agreement",with Mexico and Canada,which contains "poison pill clauses" for "non market economy countries",which to some extent affected China’s foreign economic exchanges and put an end to China’s economic development Space.Moreover,the global spread of new coronary pneumonia has brought greater challenges to the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.If China wants to achieve economic security and master the leading power in the international division of labor,it has to constantly improve the GVC status of manufacturing industry.So how to improve the status of GVC in China’s manufacturing industry? This paper uses TIVA database published in 2018 and WIOD database published in 2016 to calculate two indicators to measure the status of GVC,accurately gives China’s manufacturing industry GVC status,and finds out the factors affecting manufacturing industry GVC status,and makes empirical analysis.Finally,according to the empirical results,it gives policy recommendations to improve China’s manufacturing industry GVC status.This paper is divided into six parts.The first chapter is the introduction,which first describes the background and significance of the research,then combs the literature from the two perspectives of GVC status measurement and the influencing factors of GVC status,and introduces the research content and research methods,and points out the innovation,that is,it measures the "economic positioning" and "physical positioning" of China’s manufacturing GVC at the same time,and the trade friction and financial crisis are introduced as explanatory variables into the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of manufacturing industry GVC status.The second chapter is an overview of the theoretical basis,which is summarized from three aspects: the international division of labor theory,the evolution of GVC theory,and the mechanism of factors influencing the GVC status of manufacturing.The third chapter is the calculation method of GVC status.This paper gives two calculation methods,GVC status index and industry upstream index,which are used to measure the "economic positioning" and "physical positioning" of GVC status respectively.The fourth chapter is the status quo of China’s manufacturing industry and its GVC status.Firstly,it analyzes the overall status of China’s manufacturing industry development from the mode of trade in goods,profitability and the degree of intra industry trade.Secondly,it analyzes the status quo of China’s manufacturing industry GVC from three aspects of economic status,physical location and international comparison.The fifth chapter is the analysis of the factors influencing the status of GVC in China’s manufacturing industry.Using the "cost discovery" model,the paper theoretically gives the basis of the factors influencing the status of GVC in manufacturing industry.Then,it makes an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the status of GVC in China’s manufacturing industry by using the TIVA database released in 2018 and the wiod database released in 2016.Chapter 6 is a summary,policy recommendations and prospects.The conclusions of this article are as follows: Firstly,the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry GVC status index is more caused by the expansion of the scale of the intermediate investment link.Secondly,through the international comparison,China’s manufacturing industry GVC status still has a gap with other countries in specific industries.Thirdly,the empirical results show that the R&D investment intensity and the manufacturing industry service industrialization The level of foreign direct investment has a negative impact on the GVC status index of China’s manufacturing industry,while the capital intensity,trade friction and the level of manufacturing services have a positive impact on the upstream degree of China’s manufacturing industry.According to the empirical results,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the promotion of GVC status of China’s manufacturing industry,such as reasonable allocation of high-quality foreign investment,promotion of transformation of scientific and technological achievements,improvement of service level,etc.,and then the paper points out the shortcomings,that is,there are limitations in the selection of influencing factors and the limited data in the TIVA database makes the sample data too small to further empirically analyze the promotion of GVC status in different element-intensive industries.Finally,it proposes the future Outlook.更多还原