【作者】 Khulan Ganbaatar；

【导师】 Li Xin Wu；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， International Business， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 自1990年的民主改革以来,本土丰富的矿产资源为蒙古带来了高水平的经济增长。不过后来,这个国家也随之出现了自然资源诅咒现象。资源诅咒是一个广义的经济概念,它包括了三个内容:荷兰病,波动性风险,寻租行为的影响。自2009年以来,“Oyu tolgoi”在进行采矿项目的时候,蒙古经济开始显现出一些荷兰病的征兆。在征兆显现过程中,每一个经济部门中优惠价格的变化都会对别的经济部门产生影响。这从而引起了广泛的关注。因此,该研究的主要目标是怎么来防止荷兰病的蔓延以及推动国家的发展。我们通过计量经济模型的角度,来分析荷兰病对蒙古经济的影响。并且,该研究包括四个资源丰富的国家以及他们怎么来克服这个现象。为了实现目标,该研究使用八个变量,就是:GDP,IN,MN,AGR,INF,FDI and UNP来进行解释荷兰病假设:?自然资源丰富对蒙古的经济增长带来负面影响?。该研究的核心理论基于罗伯津斯基定理(Rybczynski Theorem).我们把矿业出口(MN)作为独立变量,其他的是因变量。根据相关和回归分析,结果如下:首先,我们通过相关分析来分析这8个变量之间的关系。矿业出口(MN)和农业部门(AGR)之间的相关系数为84%。从另一方便来讲,服务行业,工业部门,外国直接投资(FDI),失业,通过膨胀率,国内生产总值(GDP)对矿业出口(MN)的相关系数分别是:26%,8%,72%,63%,8.6%and 58%.其次,根据回归分析,指标中有五个和矿业出口是正回归,有两个是负相关:服务行业与通过膨胀率。结果表明如果MN增加1%的话,农业部门会减少-0,232%。工业部门对蒙古的GDP出了最大的贡献之一。该结果确认蒙古经济越来越依赖采矿业。因此,蒙古政府需要多样化经济。此外,该论文表明了蒙古未来的经济增长机会以及怎么有效的使用它的巨大的矿物资源。我们分析了4个资源型国家和它们的经历:挪威,番椒,博茨瓦纳和阿拉伯联合酋长国。这四个国家的地理位置和文化是不同的。相同的是它们怎么来客服荷兰病。所有4个国家为了避免金融危机和市场上的价格波动性成立了一个主权财富基金。而且,所有4个国家的财政法很有成效。它们把采矿收入投资于基础建设,人类发展和未来储备。简而言之,蒙古完全有能力来解决它资源与经济的矛盾,如果它能够及时作出正确的决策并改革矿产储量的政策。根据计量经济分析,农业部门与矿业是紧密相关的。所以,当务之急是要改善农业部门。其他部门,例如服务业和工业,与矿业出口关联较弱。从短期来看,为了有效使用矿产资源收益,政府应当成立一个主权财富基金。从长期来看,为了保障经济可持续发展,实现经济多样化是至关重要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mongolia is gifted with abundant mineral resources which have been generating high levels of economic growth since the democratic reform of 1990.However,the country is now characterized by the natural resource curse phenomenon.The resource curse is a large and broad term which has three main attributes,including Dutch Disease,volatility risk,and rent seeking effect.Since 2009,when the “Oyu Tolgoi” mining project embarked,the Mongolian economy started experiencing some symptoms of Dutch Disease—the process whereby new discoveries of minerals leads to favorable price changes in one sector of the economy and in turn cause concerns in other sectors.Hence,the principle objective of this research is to find a possible solution to avert the Dutch Disease and contribute to the future development of Mongolia.With the aim of analyzing the Dutch Disease effect in Mongolia,the econometric model is used.Moreover,the research includes the history of four resource abundant countries’ experiences of how they prudently used their mineral deposits and overcame the phenomenon.In order to fulfill the objective,in this study eight variables are used,namely GDP(Gross Domestic Product),IN(Industrial Sector),SR(Service Sector),MN(Share of Mining on Exports),AGR(Agriculture Sector),INF(Inflation Rate),FDI(Foreign Direct Investment),and UNP(Unemployment Rate),to explain the Dutch Disease hypothesis which is “Natural resource abundance has a negative influence on economic development in Mongolia”.The core theory of the research is based on the Rybczynski’s theorem.The independent variable is the share of mining on exports(MN),and the other variables are dependent.According to the correlation and regression analysis,the result comes as the following.Firstly,the result of the correlation analysis determines how the eight variables are relevant to each other.As an outcome of the correlation analysis,the share of mining on exports and agricultural sector output,show the significant result of 84 percent.On the other hand,the correlation coefficient of the service sector is 26.8 percent,industrial sector 65 percent,FDI 72 percent,unemployment 63 percent,inflation rate 8.6 percent,and,GDP 58 percent respectively.Secondly,in the outcome of the regression analysis,five of the indicators showed positive regression with the mining exports,yet two of the indicators proved negative relation with the increase in mining exports,the service sector and inflation rate.The most relevant variable to the mining exports was the agricultural sector.The result depicts if the mining exports increase by 1 percent,the output of the agriculture sector will decrease by-0.232 percent.The agriculture sector was one of the biggest contributors to the GDP,before the mining sector.This outcome confirms that the Mongolian economy has already become dependent on mining sector.In consequence,there is a vital demand to diversify the economy.Furthermore,this thesis is demonstrating Mongolia’s future opportunity for development and how to use its vast mineral resources efficiently and smartly through studying the other resource rich countries’ experiences.Norway,Chile,Botswana,and United Arab Emirates,the countries different in geographical location and even culture,are chosen as great examples.The main connection between them is their success story related to the Dutch Disease.All four countries established a sovereign wealth fund in order to overcome the financial crisis and price volatility of mineral prices in the local market.In addition,fiscal laws of the four countries are prudent and their governments invested the mining revenues into infrastructure,human development,and future savings.In short,Mongolia has a full potential to surpass the natural resource paradox if it can take the right actions and change the current policy on mineral reserves.According to the result of econometric analysis,the agriculture sector is the most correlated with the mining sector.Therefore,there is a need to improve the agriculture sector.Thus,in the future in the short-term,establishing a sovereign wealth fund is one of the rational policies to utilize the mineral revenue.In the long-term,diversification of the economy is crucial for the country’s future sustainable development.更多还原