【作者】 刘光磊；

【导师】 郝勇；

【作者基本信息】 上海工程技术大学 ， 社会保障， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 老龄化社会的到来使老人、家庭和国家面临诸多挑战,一方面老年人在生命的最后阶段生理机能弱化,需要他人照料;另一方面,核心家庭增加,家庭养老功能弱化亟需国家承担相应责任,因此国家将在老人照料、服务人员配置和资金供给等方面存在巨大挑战。居家养老作为国家发展的重要社会化养老服务方式,一方面,具有契合我国传统伦理观念,保证老人共享天伦之乐的优点;另一方面,整合多方资源,缓解家庭和国家的养老压力、负担。基于上述背景,本文重点从需求的角度,对未来居家养老服务项目需求、服务人员需求和资金需求进行了预测。本文研究方法包括:首先,运用文献研究法,收集相关政策资料和相关科研成果,整理、归纳并总结居家养老服务目前的研究和现实状况。其次,运用调查研究的方法,对上海市长宁区三泾南宅、绿园一村和金菊小区三个社区的1200名老人进行结构式访谈,获取他们的基本状况、现时生活状况、养老意愿和居家养老服务需求四方面的信息。再次,运用SPSS19.0统计软件对样本进行统计分析,其中包括描述性统计、交互式分析、单因素统计等。最后,运用VENSIM系统动力学软件对2014-2050年居家养老服务项目需求、服务人员数量和未来资金缺口进行了预测。本文主要有以下研究成果:第一,居家养老服务成首选,居家养老服务主体地位的定位切合老人养老意愿,59.4%的老年人选择居家养老。第二,养老服务需求多元化,但是生活照料、医疗保健和精神慰藉是当前老人最基本的三大服务需求。第三,分析了个人因素、经济因素和家庭因素对老人养老意愿、居家养老服务需求和经济承受能力的影响。第四,本文研究重点为需求的仿真,选取了需求要素、经济要素、老年人口数等因素构建系统动力学模型,预测出低、中、高三种需求程度下未来居家养老基本服务需求发展变化趋势,未来居家养老将出现三种发展阶段:需求量快速增长阶段(2014—2025),需求量平稳增长阶段(2026—2042),需求增长缓慢下降阶段(2043年以后);在具体服务项目方面,未来需求量最大的项目为上门做家务、聊天解闷、上门护理和上门看病;人力资源配置方面,未来不同服务项目对人员的需求情况为上门做家务、上门护理、聊天解闷和上门看病;财政供给层面,在未来近30年里,居家养老服务资金缺口将持续扩大,研究发现,当国家财政投入在2%—3%范围内浮动,且居家养老服务财政投入占养老服务财政投入范围为70%-90%时,更有利于保持居家养老供需平衡状态。为了实现居家养老的可持续发展,国家做到未雨绸缪。首先,政府应做好法规、制度、资金保障;社区做好软硬件建设;服务队伍要保证稳定性和专业化。更多还原

【Abstract】 An aging society make the old man, family, and country faces many challenges,on the one hand, physiological function of the elderly receded in the final stages of life;on the other hand,because of the core family, family endowment function weaken, countries need to assume corresponding responsibility. So, the state will face immense challenges in the aspects of caring for the elderly personal service and financial support.The aged-care at home is one of the important social endowment service way. On the one hand, it is so fit China’s traditional ethics that That old man can be in the love of his family; On the other hand,it can integrate resources and alleviate the pressure of the family. Based on the above background, The author forecasts demand for home endowment service project requirements, service staff and capital requirements in the future.In this paper, research methods include: First of all, using literature research gather the information and relevant scientific research. Secondly, methods the 1200 old man selected through a investigatio method were treated by an structured interview in Shanghai changning district. The author obtain their information of basic conditions, the present living conditions, pension and home endowment service needs. Again, using SPSS19.0 statistical software for statistical analysis of samples, including descriptive statistics, interactive analysis, single factor statistics, etc. Finally,the author forecasted demand for home endowment service project requirements, service staff and capital requirements in the future using VENSIM system dynamics softwareThis paper mainly has the following research results: Home-based care services became the preferred service and adheres to the inclination for the eldly. Proportion was 59.4%. Secondly,pension services was multivariate,but assisted living、medical care and mental care were basic need. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the personal factors, economic factors and family factors will have deep effect on the elderly will, pension service demand and the influence of the economic capacity. Fourth, this paper studies the key for the simulation of demand. Based on the demand factor, economic factor, elderly population factors, the author builded a System dynamics model. Three stages of development in the future included rapid growth stage(2014-2025), the stable growth phase(2026-2042), decline stage slowly(after 2043). In terms of services project, the project with the biggest demand are do housework、chat、health care and seeing a doctor。Home endowment service funding gap will continue to expand for nearly 30 years in the future。To keep the house supply and demand balance,the fiscal spending input is in the 2% 3% range and Home endowment service financial investment is 70%- 90%In order to realize the sustainable development of home-based care for the aged, the country is preparing in advance。First of all, the government should do its job well actively, for example, laws and regulations, system, funds safeguard; Community completes the hardware and software construction; Service team ensure the stability and specialization.更多还原