【作者】 刘王勇；

【导师】 张慧莉；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 大坝安全内部和外部变形监测是检测大坝安全运行状况，及时发现工程是否隐患的重要日常工作，是大坝运行管理的重中之重。为保证大坝安全运行，按照《混凝土坝安全监测技术规范》（DL/T5178-2003）、《水电站大坝运行安全管理规定》（国家电力监管委员会第3号令）、《水电站大坝安全监测工作管理办法》（电监安全[2009]4号）等要求，需定期对大坝进行水工监测。在现场检查结合定期监测资料进行对比分析等工作的基础上，对整个大坝的运行工况做出初步评价，对监测设施的保护、更新改造等提出意见和建议。为了掌握航电工程大坝、电厂、船闸运行期的工作状态，验证设计的各项参数，及时发现异常情况采取措施，以保证大坝、电厂、船闸能够安全得正常运行，因此，要对其进行变形监测。变形监测的工作包括每月一次的变形点测量和每年一次的控制网校核。由于变形点监测是在控制网提供精确坐标的基础上进行，因此控制网校核工作非常关键。大坝安全监测系统的重要观测项目之一是水平位移观测。结合对某电站大坝坝顶上11个观测点以及船闸边墙上18个观测点的观测过程，介绍了在视觉观察法、前方交会法行水平位移的原理，步骤和误差分析，结合历史数据对水平位移方面的观测资料进行统计整理，建立模型和多元线性回归分析，并讨论了温度、水位、时效对水平位移的影响深度，坝顶的水平位移，发现船闸和水库水位温度的影响是显而易见的，老龄化的水平位移的影响不大;采用第二代回归方法偏最小二乘回归重新建立统计模型，与多元线性回归分析做简要对比，发现偏最小二乘回归的拟合效果比多元线性回归更好。本文主要介绍了用回归分析和偏最小二乘法两种方法对某电站大坝及船闸上点的测量数据进行分析，并对分析结果进行比较，可以得到偏最小二乘法方法得到的拟合结果更好，建议在以后数据处理方面多偏向于用最小二乘法进行分析处理，得到的拟合结果综合看误差更小，结果比其他方法更精确。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dam deformation monitoring is monitoring the running status of dam engineering hiddendanger in the important day-to-day work, is the eyes and ears of the dam operationmanagement. In order to ensure the safe operation of the dam, according to "technicalspecification for concrete dam safety monitoring (DL/T5178-5178)," hydropower stationdam safety management regulations "(the state electricity regulatory commission of the thirdorder), the measures for the hydropower station dam safety monitoring work management(electric supervisor safety [2009] no.4) requirements, such as need for hydraulic monitoringof DAMS on a regular basis. In the on-site inspection in combination with regular monitoringdata on the basis of comparative analysis, etc, make a preliminary evaluation of the wholedam running, the protection of monitoring facilities, such as upgrading put forward opinionsand Suggestions. In order to grasp the avionics engineering sites, power plant, the workingstate of the ship lock operation period, verify the design parameters, and found the abnormalsituation to take timely measures, to ensure that the sites, power plants, ship lock can safelyrun normally, therefore, on the external deformation monitoring. Deformation monitoringwork included the monthly point measurement and the annual lighting control nucleus. Due tothe deformation monitoring point is on the basis of the control network to provide precisecoordinates, therefore is critical to control lighting nuclear work.Horizontal displacement of dam safety monitoring observation is one of the importantprojects. Combining power station dam crest Deal on11observation points with lock sidewall18observation points process, this research introduced the horizontal displacement of theline of sight observation method and the principle of forward intersection method, procedureand error analysis process that combines historial data on the horizontal displacementobserved data statistical processing, modeling and multivariate linear regression analysis, anddiscussed the water level, temperature and aging on the horizontal displacement of the degreeof influence and found the dam crest and lock the horizontal displacement by water level andtemperature effects had a marked impact of aging on the horizontal displacement is small, andthe use of second-generation method of partial least squares regression to re-establish thestatistical model, and multiple linear regression analysis to make a brief comparison andfound that partial least squares regression had better fitting effect than the multiple linear regression.This article mainly introduced the use of regression analysis and partial least squaremethod and two methods for the new power station dam locks on the point of measurementdata is analyzed, and carries on the comparison to the results of the analysis, can get thefitting results of partial least squares method is better, suggest after data-processing tend touse more analysis of the least-square method, the fitting result error is smaller, more accurateresults.更多还原