【作者】 李智飞；

【导师】 门宝辉；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变化和人类活动对我国水资源系统的影响不断加深,出现水资源短缺、水环境污染、水土流失、旱涝事件频繁等一系列问题,水资源系统表现出强烈的脆弱性。本文对水资源脆弱性理论与应用进行了研究。主要研究内容及成果如下：(1)根据人类社会对水资源系统是否采取适应性措施,将水资源脆弱性分为狭义水资源脆弱性(Narrow Water Resources Vulnerability,简称NWRV)和广义水资源脆弱性(General Water Resources Vulnerability,简称GWRV)。(2)运用问题树模型定性分析我国水资源脆弱性问题；在定性分析基础上,建立水资源脆弱性PSR (pressure-state-response,简称PSR)指标集,分别用PS和PSR评价狭义和广义水资源脆弱性；并提出水资源脆弱性阈值评价方法；运用阈值、最严格水资源管理制度以及供需平衡理论,提出水资源脆弱性的综合适应管理模式。(3)以我国西北内陆区生态问题存在最为严重的河西走廊地区及其疏勒河、黑河、石羊河三个流域为例进行水资源脆弱性评价。运用问题树模型定性分析出河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性存在的主客观因素。运用聚类中心确定标准化取值；运用层次分析法确定指标权重。(4)对2000-2010年河西走廊地区及其三个流域的水资源脆弱性指标脆弱程度、脆弱性结果、各指标贡献率以及阈值进行分析。河西走廊及其疏勒河、黑河和石羊河三个流域GWRV均处于重度脆弱,均值分别为0.7341、0.6876、0.7092、0.7653。河西走廊地区NWRV和GWRV呈现平行变化规律；GWRV反映具有人类适应性措施的脆弱程度,相对NWRV平均有8.86%的下降空间,更能代表实际现状的水资源系统的脆弱程度。受人为因素影响较大的指标贡献率为65%左右,其中以水资源开发利用率、万元GDP用水量、亩均用水量这三个指标为关键指标。在较为理想的A1模式下,河西走廊地区的水资源脆弱性阈值下限为0.2367,为轻度脆弱；若发展控制不好,按照B1模式,河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性上限为0.9528,为极脆弱。(5)以2020年为情景年,在20%、50%、75%、95%四种来水频率下,运用阈值、最严格水资源管理制度、供需平衡以及综合适应管理四种理论,对河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性进行适应管理研究。结果表明,阈值管理模式较为理想；最严格水资源管理制度和供需平衡在根本上不能改变河西走廊地区水资源脆弱状态；综合适应管理能使河西走廊地区水资源脆弱呈中等脆弱状态,但需要从降低农业用水总量、水资源利用总量和万元GDP用水量等方面采取措施。本文创新的地方主要体现在水资源脆弱性的概念、问题树分析、指标评价集、阈值评价方法、综合适应管理以及针对河西走廊及其三个流域进行系列年和情景年评价等方面。本文针对水资源脆弱性理论与应用的研究,能够为政府水利相关部门进行水资源规划管理提供决策支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, human activities and climate change have a very effect on water resources system in china, which result in water resources shortage, water environment pollution, water and soil erosion, drought and flood frequently, and so on, and those demonstrate that water resources system is a strong vulnerability system. In this paper, the theory and application of water resources vulnerability are studied. The main contents and results are as follows:(1) According to whether human society take on adaptive measures, vulnerability is divided into narrow water resource vulnerability (NWRV for short) and generalized water resource vulnerability (GWRV for short).(2) Using the method of "Problem Tree Analysis" to analysis the question of China’s water resources vulnerability; based on the qualitative analysis, we establish the index set of water resource vulnerability by using the pressure-state-response (PSR for short) framework, and use the index of PS and PSR respectively to represent the narrow and general water resources vulnerability; and propose the threshold evaluation method of water resources vulnerability; and using the threshold, the strictest water resources management system and water supply-demand balance theories, we put forward an integrated adaptive management model of water resources vulnerability.(3) Hexi Corrdor region and its Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River Basin that have very serious ecological environmental problems is acted as the case study area. Use the method of "Problem Tree Analysis" to analysis the question of Hexi Corrdor region’s water resources vulnerability, and use cluster centers and AHP to conform the standardized values and index weight.(4) Analyze the fragile degree of the indexes, vulnerability result, the contribution of each index and the threshold of Hexi Corridor region and its three basins from2000to2010. The GWRV of Hexi Corridor and Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River Basin are in severe vulnerability, and their mean values are respectively0.7341,0.6876,0.7092,7653. The line between NWRV and GWRV in Hexi Corridor region shows a parallel variation; GWRV relatively NWRV, its vulnerability has8.86%decline in space in Hexi Corridor region; NWRV stands for the potential vulnerability oof water resource; GWRV stands for the true vulnerability of water resource; GWRV is more representative of the actual degree of vulnerability. The contribution index rate influenced by human factors is about65%, of which water resources development and utilization, Water Consumption for10000RMB GDP, Water Resources Per Capita are the key indicators. Under the ideal of A1model, the lower threshold water resources vulnerability in the Hexi Corridor region is0.2367, which is in slightly fragile; and if it can’t control the development speed, according to the B1mode, the upper limit in the Hexi Corridor region is0.9528, which is in very fragile.(5) Study the adaptive management of water resources vulnerability by using the threshold, the strictest water resources management system, water supply-demand balance and an integrated adaptive management model in2020under the runoff frequency of20%,50%,75%,95%. The results show that, the threshold management model is relatively ideal, and the strictest water resources management system and water supply-demand balance can’t be changed fundamentally the fragile state of water resources in the Hexi Corridor region, and the integrated adaptive management can make the fragile fragile state to reduce the medium fragile, which needs to take measures about reducing the amount of agricultural water use, the total water resource utilization and Water Consumption for10000RMB GDP.This paper has innovations in the following places:the concept of water resources vulnerability and the method of "Problem Tree Analysis", the evaluation indicators set, threshold evaluation methods, the integrated adaptive management, and the series and scene years’evaluation of Hexi Corridor. This paper mainly studies the theory and application of water resources vulnerability, which can provide a decision support for some government departments.更多还原