【作者】 丁卓然；

【导师】 柳清瑞；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 人口学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 自我国80年代人口计划生育政策的制定与实施后，辽宁省人口总和生育率水平迅速下降。三十年时间里辽宁省人口年龄结构与人口总量规模发生了显著的变化。与此同时，城镇化进程的不断加快促使一部分农村剩余劳动力由农村向城市转移，迁入地与迁出地的人口重新分布。在人口生育率变动与人口迁移变动的双重变动下，势必对城市与农村经济、社会、文化、教育等诸多方面产生影响。教育特别是九年制义务教育是我国法律规定实施的具有普及性与免费性的学校教育，是提升国民素质的基础。义务教育一直是中国教育改革和发展的重中之重，国家明确把实现让所有的适龄儿童都“上好学”作为发展目标。伴随着人口数量不断变动、城乡人口分布不断变化，作为义务教育对象的适龄人口数量也在发生变动。本文运用人口学的预测模型与研究方法，以义务教育适龄人口为切入点，旨在探究辽宁省人口变动对于义务教育的影响。一方面对本省未来20年人口自然变动与人口迁移变动进行趋势预测，另一方面对学校结构布局和师资队伍进行预测，通过义务教育需求与供给双方的数量关系对比，进一步得到辽宁省2015-2030年义务教育阶段的供求情况，为全省制定宏观教育布局、教育战略规划以及统筹城乡间教育资源合理配置提供了数据基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 In1980s, China began to make the Family Planning policy, the total fertility ratedropped rapidly in Liaoning province. The total population and the population agestructure of Liaoning province have made a remarkable change during the followingthirty years. At the same time, the process of urbanization is accelerating which makesto rural surplus of labor move from the countryside to the city. And population indestination and moving out city has renewed again. The changes of both the birth rateand population migration is bound to have an effect on many aspects, such aseconomy, society, culture, education and so on in city and rural.According to the law, the education in our country, especially Nine-yearCompulsory Education is school education which is universality and free. That is thefoundation of the promotion in the national quality. Compulsory education is the mostimportant part of the revolution of the Chinese education. China treats theimplementation of all school-age children can go to school as a development goal.Along with the continuous changes in population and distribution of populationchanges, the number of the school-age population of compulsory education also haschanged.This paper using prediction models and research methods of demography, takingthe compulsory education of school-age population as the starting point, aims toexplore the impact of compulsory education affecting by the population change in theLiaoning province. On the one hand, this paper predicts the trend of the changes ofnatural population and migration population in the next twenty years. On the otherhand, this paper also predicts the distribution of the school and the teaching staff. Itwill get the further situation in demand and supply of the compulsory education in2015-2030through the comparison with the relationship between the supply anddemand of compulsory education. That provides the data basis for formulating themacro education distribution, education strategy planning and co-ordinating urban andrural education resources in Liaoning province.更多还原