【作者】 余丹丹；

【导师】 张友棠；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 会计学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,中国企业跨国投资方兴未艾。据统计公报显示,自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,中国面临前所未有的对外投资机遇,中国的对外投资呈现高速增长的态势。但与此同时遭遇到的陷阱和损失也日渐增多。统计表明,中国企业跨国投资,尤其是跨国并购,成功的案例仅为30%。由于起步晚,缺乏国际投资经验,中国的对外投资屡遭险境,更有一些项目损失数十亿,代价惨痛。如何增加企业风险辨识与防控能力,使更多的企业更好的“走出去”,更健康的“走下去”,关系到国家战略目标的实现,也影响着数以万计的中国企业跨国投资的成败,是跨国投资过程中亟待解决的重要课题。本文以企业跨国投资风险控制理论与企业跨国投资区位选择理论等为起点,根据国家最新颁布的《2011年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》,结合历年来国家商务部,统计局等部门相关数据,总结了中国改革开放后企业跨国投资发展历程及特征。随后详细论述了企业跨国投资的三层次风险辨识及其指标设计。即企业跨国投资宏观风险——国家风险、企业跨国投资中观风险——行业风险、企业跨国投资微观风险——企业风险,共设计三个层次的指标,包括3个一级指标,10个二级指标,38个三级指标,以期对企业跨国投资风险进行详尽全面的识别与评价。然后构建了企业跨国投资区位选择总体决策模型。该决策模型包括三个部分,即明确基于投资企业战略定位的跨国投资动机,在初选国的基础上利用三层次风险辨识方法对风险进行分析评价,在风险辨识的基础上利用灰色层次分析法对备选国进行优先排序并最终确定跨国投资区位。该总体决策模型能够对区位选择问题进行量化决策。最后,选取某矿业集团公司的跨国投资区位选择进行案例分析。本研究的主要创新点及特色在于建立了中国企业跨国投资的三层次风险辨识体系,并采用灰色层次分析方法对区位选择进行量化决策。本文正试图建立这样一套系统,从企业跨国投资的风险特征入手,深入分析企业跨国投资过程中从风险来源到风险评估计量的各个环节,旨在为中国企业跨国投资的区位选择提供一个既有理论深度,又切实可行的实践方法,具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, cross-border investment of Chinese enterprises is in the ascendant. China has been facing unprecedented opportunities for foreign investment. Foreign investment presents an unprecedented high growth trend. But at the same time, the traps and losses encountered were also increasing. Statistics showed that the percentage of successful multinational investment of Chinese enterprises, especially in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, was only30%.Due to the late start, and the lack of experience in international investment, foreign investment in China have been repeatedly in danger, and some of the projects had suffered billions of loss. How to increase the risk identification and prevention and control capabilities, and how to help more enterprises better "go out" and more healthy "go down"? This is a question related to the goals of the national strategy, also affected result of investment of tens of thousands of Chinese enterprises transnational.This thesis is based on the enterprise cross-border investment risk control theory and enterprise transnational investment location choice theory theory.It also take the"2011China’s foreign direct investment statistics bulletin" into consideration.It summarizes the characteristics and development of enterprises’international investment after China’s reform and opening up policy. Then this paper expounds three dimensional risk identification of investment and gives its index design in detail. That is to say, macro risk-country risk, medium risk-industry risk, enterprise risk, total design three levels of indicators, including three level index,10secondary indexes,38level3index, in order to make comprehensive identification and evaluation of enterprises’ multinational investment risk in detail.And then it constructs overall decision on the enterprise transnational investment location selection. The decision model includes three parts, namely making sure of strategic positioning based on the of the transnational investment motivation, and risk analysis and evaluation based on three dimensional risk identification method of primarily choosed countries, and then risk identification based on grey-AHP and eventually determine the cross-border investment location. The overall decision model carries on the quantification decision. Finally, it selects an enterprise-a mining group company’s cross-border investment location seldction case to analyze. The main innovation of this study lies in the establishment of Chinese enterprises cross-border investment through the3D risk identification system and features, and using gray-level analysis method to quantify the decision on the location choice. This article is trying to establish such a system, which starts from risk characteristics of the transnational corporate investment, and analyzing enterprises transnational investment process, from the sources of risk to the various aspects of the risk assessment measurement designed for Chinese enterprises cross-border investment location selection. This is to provide in-depth analysis of an existing theoretical depth and practical framework for risk management and operational management, thus having certain theoretical and practical significance.更多还原