浅析奥巴马政府“阿富汗—巴基斯坦”反恐新战略

【作者】 党小飞；

【导师】 李海东；

【作者基本信息】 外交学院 ， 国际关系， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 2009年3月27日，奥巴马政府第一次正式公布“阿富汗——巴基斯坦”反恐新战略。本文主要对奥巴马政府的“阿富巴”新战略做了四个方面的初步探析：反恐新战略提出的背景及原因、内容及新意、对其评析及得失分析。本文认为，关于新战略出台的背景包含国际和国内两方面的因素，其中美国全球战略的“战略收缩”、挽回受损的国际形象以及美民众及盟友的态度转变是其出台的内因，阿巴反恐形势持续恶化是其客观外因，内外因的共同推动才促使了新战略的出台。而新战略的内容也主要是针对阿富汗和巴基斯坦，主要是美国对两国运用“双轨”战略及胡萝卜加大棒政策，但是新战略的运用不同以往，其中还蕴含着新意，如实现阿巴反恐一体化及缩小打击目标等。对新战略的评析主要是从其恢复美国领导地位的实质及对国际格局的影响来分析的，新战略对南亚、中东以及中亚都产生了巨大影响。此外，新战略的推行也不是一帆风顺的，它也面临着严峻的挑战，主要是从美阿、美巴、国际与地区合作以及反恐新战略自身存在的问题四个方面来分析。此外，新战略的成功是建立在一系列的假设基础之上的。文章最后通过对这些假设的逐一分析，对新战略的前景做出了预测：新战略的前景黯淡，它最终只可能会取得有限成功，并演化成奥巴马的“撤出战略”，以集中主要精力来应对新兴大国的崛起。更多还原

【Abstract】 On27March,2009, the Obama administration formally announced the “Afpak”strategy for the first time. This thesis mainly tries to explore the backgrounds, contents,originality, essence, evaluation of the strategy and the challenges it faces. Based on analysis,we can predict its prospect. This thesis argues that it is both the internal factors and theexternal factors together that contribute to the enaction of the “Afpak” strategy. As for thecontents of the strategy, it mainly aims at Afghanistan and Pakistan.With regard to the evaluation of the new strategy, we mainly analyze it from twoaspects, including the essence of renewing American’s leadership in the world and itsimpact on the international pattern. However, being confronted with severe challenges inthe cooperation between America and Afghanistan, between the U.S. and Pakistan, amonginternational community and regional countries and the problems of the strategy, theimplementation of the “Afpak” strategy will not be smooth. In addition, the success of thenew strategy bases on a series of hypothesis. In the end, through the analysis to thesehypotheses, we can draw a conclusion that the prospect of the new strategy is bleak and itwill only attain definite success and evolve into the strategy of retreat so as to cope with therise of the emerging countries.更多还原