【摘要】 运用双变量LISA、空间计量模型等方法探索2009—2018年长三角城市群41个市域财政收支与人口迁移的空间关联特征,分析地方财政对人口迁移影响的空间效应。结果表明:(1)不同等级的人口迁移在空间上呈明显集聚趋势,其中迁入区向多极化演变,由东向西转移。(2)财政收支与净迁移率初期表现出空间集聚和依赖特征,随着时间推移,这种依赖特征显著性减弱。财政收入对人口迁移的抑制作用有所扩大,而财政支出对人口迁移的促进作用在减弱。(3)财政支出对本地及周围地区均具有促进作用,而财政收入则相反,财政收入对本地区人口迁移的阻力作用要强于财政支出的拉力作用。(4)经济发展水平、城镇化水平、对外开放水平等因素对地区人口迁移也具有促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper used bivariate LISA model,spatial econometric model to explore the spatial correlation between fiscal revenue and expenditure and population migration in 41 cities in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2018,and analyzed the spatial effect of local fiscal revenue and expenditure on migration. The results showed that:(1)The migration of different levels of population all showed a clear agglomeration trend in space,in which the migration area evolves to multi-polarization,gradually shifting from the eastern coast to the western inland( Wanjiang urban belt).(2)The bivariate global spatial autocorrelation between fiscal revenue and expenditure and net migration rate showed significant spatial agglomeration and dependence characteristics in the early stage of the study,but this dependence characteristic was basically insignificant over time. The inhibitory effect of fiscal revenue on population migration was expanding,while the promotion effect was weakening.(3)The space Dubin model test shows that fiscal expenditure had a promotion effect on local and surrounding areas,but fiscal revenue was contrary to it. The resistance effect of fiscal revenue on the migration of the region was stronger than the pulling effect of fiscal expenditure.(4)Factors such as the level of regional economic development,the level of urbanization and opening also had a role in promoting regional migration.更多还原