【摘要】 根据实测资料,采用肯德尔秩次趋势性显著检验(Kendall rank test)表征了松滋口、太平口、藕池口三口入洞庭湖的水量变化趋势,同时预测了三口分流量变化。结果表明未来荆南三口分流量将呈逐年减少趋势,预计到三峡水库运用后第5个10年(2043-2052年)与第二个10年(2013-2022年)相比,年平均入湖水量将减少64亿m3,2032年以前是三口分流减少较快的时期,占总减少量的85%以上,此后逐渐趋缓。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on measured data,the changing trends of water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake are analyzed by using Kendall rank test in this paper.The changing in flow is also predicted.The results show that flows of Sankou decrease year after year.Compared with next ten years(2013-2022),water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake would decrease by 6.4bn cubic metres in the fifth ten-year(2043-2052)plan after the operation of the Three Gorges projects.The flow has a fast decrease period before 2023,which accounts for more than 85% of total reduction.After 2023,the flow would experience a slow reduction.更多还原