【摘要】 我国主要普速干线能力紧张的局面依然严峻，能力利用率饱和区段客货列车占比基本持平，且近年来呈现减客增货趋势。应综合考虑线路能力利用情况、经济效益可持续性、社会效益必需性和运量可转移性等因素，评估普速线路是否需要进行列车开行结构调整。若普速线路停客增货，应考虑客流将转移至其他普速列车、高速列车和其他交通方式。以沈大线为例，停运客车后，预测将有39.3%的客流转移至其他交通方式，且硬座旅客更容易转移至其他交通方式。更多还原

【Abstract】 The capacity shortage situation of main universal speed lines is still severe in China. The ratio of passenger and freight trains in the capacity utilization saturation section is basically flat, and in recent years, there is a trend of decreasing passenger trains and increasing freight trains. It is suggested that the factors such as capacity utilization, sustainability of economic benefits, necessity of social benefits and transferability of traffic volume should be considered comprehensively to evaluate whether the train structure adjustment is necessary for the universal speed line. If the passenger flow of the universal speed line stops and increases, it should be considered that the passenger flow will be transferred to other universal speed trains, highspeed trains, and other modes of transportation. Taking the Shenyang-Dalian Line as an example, after the trains are stopped, it is predicted that 39.3%of the passenger flow will be transferred to other modes of transportation, and the hard-seat passengers are more likely to transfer to other modes of transportation.更多还原