【摘要】 科学预测技术进步推动下粮食生产的能源消耗及其碳排放变化趋势，分析其节能减排潜力，对于农业“双碳”战略目标实现具有重要的理论和实践价值。本文构建中国主要粮食作物生产的能源消耗及其碳排放系统模拟模型，从技术进步视角设计模拟情景方案，系统性模拟2022—2035年粮食作物生产的能耗碳排放变化趋势和节能减排潜力。研究发现：(1)如果缺乏足够有效技术进步，粮食生产中的能源消耗及碳排放在较长时期将处于较高水平；(2)能源增进型技术进步推动下的粮食生产节能减排潜力优于产出增进型技术进步，而协同技术进步的节能减排潜力最大；(3)技术进步推动下各种作物生产的能源消耗及碳排放量变化趋势不尽相同，玉米等三大主粮的节能减排潜力较大。未来要协同推进多种类型技术进步，尤其重视能源增进型技术的研发推广，并基于作物种类制定针对性粮食生产节能减排策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Scientific prediction of the trend of energy consumption and its carbon emission in grain production driven by technological progress and analysis the potential of energy saving and emission reduction are of great theoretical significance and practical value.This paper constructed a dynamic simulation model of energy consumption and its carbon emissions for major grain crop production in China and designed a simulation scenario scheme from the perspective of technological progress. Then the paper systematically simulated the medium and long-term trends of energy consumption and its carbon emissions and analyzed the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in grain crop production from 2022-2035. The results indicate that:(1)In the absence of effective technological progress, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of major food crop production will remain at a high level.(2)The energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of food production driven by energy-enhancing technological progress is better than that of output-enhancing technological progress, while the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of collaborative technological progress is the greatest.(3)The trends of energy consumption and carbon emission of each crop are different under different technological progress scenarios. The potential of energy saving and emission reduction of the three major staple foods is much larger. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the energy-enhancing technological progress, collaboratively promote multiple types of technological progress, and develop targeted energy-saving and emission reduction strategies according to different crop types.更多还原