【摘要】 “十四五”时期，中国旅游业要立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，分析旅游目的地发展潜力，实现高质量发展。本文在界定旅游目的地发展潜力概念的基础上，建立旅游目的地发展潜力指标体系，采用纵横向拉开档次法对2010—2019年我国30个省域的旅游发展潜力进行了动态定量分析，利用核密度估计和ArcGis空间分析软件从时间和空间的角度分别研究。研究表明：（1）中国旅游目的地发展潜力整体呈现协调演进上升态势，但区域间仍呈现显著的空间差异和不均衡分布状态，表现为东部>中部>西部的特征；（2）省域间旅游发展潜力存在显著的空间相关性，聚集效应不断加强，且高值聚集型区域范围逐渐扩大，但主要集中在东部地区；（3）旅游发展潜力重心均在河南省内，重心转移路径总体向西方向移动，呈现明显的东北（偏北）—西南（偏南）空间格局。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the 14th Five Year Plan period,China’s tourism industry should be based on the new development stage,implement the new development concept,analyze the development potential of tourism destinations to realize high-quality development. Based on the definition of the concept of tourism destination development potential,this paper establishes the tourism destination development potential index system,and makes a dynamic quantitative analysis of the tourism development potential of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019 by using the “vertical and horizontal grading method”. In addition,this paper studies the development potential from the perspective of time and space by using kernel density estimation and ArcGis spatial analysis software. The results showed that:(1) The overall development potential of China’s tourism destinations showed a coordinated upward trend,but there were still significant spatial differences and uneven distribution among regions,with the characteristics of eastern > central > western.(2) There is a significant spatial correlation in the development potential of tourism between provinces. The agglomeration effect is continuously strengthened,and the scope of high-value agglomeration areas is gradually expanding with the focus on the eastern region.(3)The focus of tourism development potential is put in Henan province,and has been moved to the west in general,showing an obvious spatial pattern of northeast(north)-southwest(south).更多还原