【摘要】 人口是研究一个国家或城市的重要指标,其发展与该地区的政治、经济、社会、文化等密切相关.人口的预测有助于制定国民经济计划或区域发展规划等.以徐州市为例,研究其人口发展特征.徐州是江苏省人口大市,2010—2018年,其人口总量逐渐增加,市区常住人口增速高于市域;青壮年劳动力较少,人口性别比趋于正常;其流出人口为省内第一,流入人口主要以省内高素质青壮年劳动力为主.运用线性回归模型、增长曲线模拟和灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测显示,2020、2025、2030、2035年徐州市域户籍人口分别为1 072.96万、1 127.10万、1 184.30万、1 244.62万人,常住人口分别为346.74万、372.20万、401.12万、433.55万人.更多还原

【Abstract】 Population is an important indicator to study a country or a city.Its development is closely related to the politics,economy,society and culture of the region,so population projection is helpful to formulate policies such as national economic plan or regional development plan.Taking Xuzhou as an example,through the data analysis,it is concluded that Xuzhou has a large population in the province,and the total population is increasing gradually from 2010 to 2018.The growth rate of the urban permanent resident population is higher than that of the rural areas.The sex ratio tends to be normal,but the ratio of young and middle-aged labor force is low.The outflow population is the first city in the province,but the inflow population is mainly the high-quality young and middle-aged labor force in the province.At the same time,using linear regression model,growth curve simulation and grey forecasting model GM(1,1)method,it is predicted that the registered population of Xuzhou in 2020,2025,2030 and 2035 could be 10.729 6,11.271 0,11.843 0 and 12.446 2 million respectively,the permanent resident population of Xuzhou urban area could be 3.467 4,3.722 0,4.011 2 and 4.335 5 million respectively.更多还原