【摘要】 [目的/意义]研究"斩首行动"在打击恐怖组织过程中的效果与利弊得失。一方面回顾与总结了"斩首行动"在反恐研究中的学理意义,另一方面评估和论证了"斩首行动"的战略目标及在反恐过程中发挥的实践价值,从而为缓解当前的反恐困境提供新的思路与建议。[方法/过程]通过以"基地"组织和"伊斯兰国"为研究对象,运用案例研究的方法,对比了两组织的结构特点和领导人更替情况,分析了"斩首行动"的实际打击效果,讨论了"斩首行动"在反恐战略中的地位和作用。[结论/结果]研究发现,组织结构的分散化程度与领导人能否实现顺利更替是影响"斩首行动"效果的关键因素。"基地"组织与"伊斯兰国"多中心的组织结构和完善的"接班人计划"削弱了"斩首行动"的实际效果,未能加速两组织的消亡。唯有加强国际反恐合作,帮助恐怖组织频仍的地区和国家恢复重建,妥善安置失业人口,解决难民问题,方能从根本上铲除滋生恐怖主义的土壤,进而最终推动恐怖主义走向消亡。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Purpose/Significance] This paper studies the effects of " decapitation" in the fight against terrorist groups. On the one hand,it review s and summarizes the theoretical significance of " decapitation" in the study of counter-terrorism,on the other hand,it assesses and demonstrates the strategic aim and practical value of " decapitation" in the counter-terrorism process,w hich provides new ideas and suggestions to alleviating current predicament of counter-terrorism. [Method/Process] Taking Al-Qaeda and the " Islamic State" as the example,using the method of case study,the study compares the organization structure and the leadership replacement of the tw o groups,analyzes the actual effect of " decapitation",and discusses the position and the role of " decapitation" in counter-terrorism strategy.[Result/Conclusion] The research show s that,the key factors affecting the effect of decapitation are the level of decentralization and the smooth degree of the leadership replacement. M ulticenter organization structure and " succession planning " practice of Al-Qaeda and the " Islamic State" w eakens the actual effect of " decapitation" and thus fails to accelerate the death of the tw o groups. Only by strengthening international cooperation against terrorism,helping the regional and national reconstruction,properly arranging the unemployed,and solving the problem of refugees can the international w orld fundamentally eliminate the breeding ground for terrorism,and eventually promote the dying off of the terrorists.更多还原