【摘要】 针对近年来城市住宅价格持续上涨、宏观调控效率大打折扣的严峻现实,以上海市为例,运用系统动力学理论构建了住宅市场系统动力学模型,并对住宅价格变化进行了仿真模拟研究,发现导致上海市住宅价格近年来持续上涨的最重要因素是供需比严重失衡,而导致供求失衡的最主要原因是市场中的投资性需求过大。为提出有效的宏观调控措施,运用系统动力学所特有的政策试验功能进行了政策试验。结果表明,就单一政策而言,"限购政策"最有效,其次是"提高二套房首付比例"和"土地政策","征收房产税"对市场影响有限。要想实现对住宅市场的有效调控,需要实施由"限购政策"、"提高二套房首付"和"增加土地供应"组成的综合性政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the circumstance of durative rise of housing price and inefficient regulation,this paper establishes a system dynamics model of housing market of Shanghai utilizing system dynamics.It simulates housing price and finds that the unbalance between housing demand and housing supply caused by excessive investment demand is the main factor that causes rise of housing price.In order to find out effective regulation policies,we conducted policy experiments.The result shows that restriction of purchase is the most effective,increasing down payment of the second house and land supply is the next most effective,and implementing housing tax has limited influences on market among single-experiments.In order to achieve effective regulation,it is necessary to conduct the synthesized policy involving restriction of purchase,increasing down payment of the second house and land supply.更多还原