【摘要】 为提高冰雹多发、地形复杂的贵州威宁地区冰雹预报准确率,利用探空资料、NCEP（0.5°×0.5°）逐6 h再分析资料、多普勒双偏振雷达资料,对2018年25个冰雹天气的环境条件演变特征进行分类对比研究。结果表明:（1）以500 hPa主要影响系统将2018年贵州威宁冰雹天气分3类,高原槽型在云贵川小槽影响下水汽垂直输送等条件主要存在于中层。南支槽型主要在中层冷平流的动力强迫下触发对流,水汽垂直输送等条件主要存在于中低层。副高型主要在热低压影响下形成位势不稳定,整层都处在较强的不稳定、抬升条件中,水汽以水平积聚为主。（2）以SI<-0.02℃、BLI<0℃、（T-T_d）₇₀₀<5℃、垂直速度位于-0.2×10^-2～-1.2×10^-2Pa·s^-1、垂直风切变大于12 m·s^-1判定3类过程环境条件时,总体趋势有相似的分布特征,可捕获至少50%的冰雹日。（3）冰雹典型回波特征结合H₄₀-H₀阈值识别雹暴单体的方法,可提高正确率、降低漏报率。这些物理量指标为贵州威宁冰雹天气潜势预报提供了客观统计基础,可为预报预警提供一定参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the accuracy of hail forecast in Weining area of Guizhou, where hail occurs is frequently frequent and terrain is complex, this paper uses sounding data, NCEP（0.5°×0.5°） reanalysis data every six hours and Doppler dual polarization radar data to classify and compare the evolution characteristics of environmental conditions of 25 hail weather in 2018. The results show that（1） Hail weather in Weining, Guizhou Province in 2018 is divided into three types by the 500 hPa main influence system, and the vertical transportation of water vapor and other conditions of plateau trough under the influence of Yunguichuan trough mainly exist in the middle layer. The plateau trough is influenced by Yunguichuan trough so some conditions such as the vertical transportation of water vapor exist in the middle layer. The south branch trough mainly triggers convection under the dynamic force of cold advection in the middle layer and conditions such as vertical transportation of water vapor mainly exist in the middle and lower layers. Subtropical high mainly forms potential instability under the influence of thermal low pressure. The whole layer is in strong unstable and uplifting conditions. Water vapor mainly accumulates horizontally.（2） The three kinds of process environmental conditions are determined by SI<-0.02 ℃,BLI<0 ℃,（T-T_d）₇₀₀<5 ℃,vertical velocity at-0.2×10^-2--1.2×10^-2Pa·s^-1 and vertical wind shear greater than 12 m/s,the overall trend has similar distribution characteristics and can capture at least 50% hail days.（3） The method of identifying hailstorm monomer based on hail typical characteristics and H₄₀-H₀ threshold can improve the correct rate and reduce the false negative rate. These physical quantity indexes provide objective statistical basis for hail weather potential forecast in Weining, Guizhou and can provide certain reference basis for forecast and early warning.更多还原