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中国木材供需预测模型及发展趋势研究

The Forecast Model and Development Trend for China Timber Supply and Demand

【作者】 谭秀凤

【导师】 侯元兆;

【作者基本信息】 中国林业科学研究院 , 森林生态学, 2011, 博士

【摘要】 本论文在总结了前人对中国木材供需研究的基础上,分析和研究了近10年中国木材生产、进出口贸易的发展变化,以及影响中国木材供需的主要因素,依据经济预测理论、供需理论和系统动力学理论,分别运用定性和定量方法预测了中国木材,特别是大径材供需的未来趋势,同时,总结了近10年中国热带材的生产、进出口贸易的发展变化,并利用系统动力学模型预测了未来热带材的供需趋势,综合以上分析和结论提出了中国木材安全供给战略措施和保障体系。根据第七次森林资源清查数据,分析和预测了中国天然林和人工林的供材潜力,预测2015年中国天然林和人工林的供材量分别为8300万m~3和19000万m~3;2020年中国天然林和人工林的供材量分别为7500万m~3和22600万m~3。因此,2015年和2020年中国木材的总供给量分别为2.7亿m~3和3亿m~3。中国木材产量相对于国内旺盛的需求严重不足,为了缓解国内木材供需结构短缺,中国大量进口热带材。为了探讨中国热带材供需的发展趋势,本论文通过设定不同的参数,构建了热带材的系统动力学模型,预测了2015年中国热带材供给和需求分别是1300万m~3和2200万m~3,供需缺口为900万m~3;2020年中国热带材供给和需求分别是1300万m~3和2500万m~3,供需缺口为1200万m~3。应用定性分析预测方法之一德尔菲方法对中国木材供需问题进行了分析和预测,该方法通过选定专家小组8人,分别设定2015年和2020年中国木材供给和需求的最小值、最可能值和最高值经过三次反馈得到结果,并对第三次的反馈结果通过平均值法和加权平均值法两种计算方法,预测结果是:2015年中国木材总供给和总消费分别是2.7亿m~3和4.0-4.1亿m~3,供需缺口为1.3-1.4亿m~3;2020年中国木材总供给和总需求分别是2.8亿m~3和4.5-4.6亿m~3,供需缺口为1.7-1.8亿m~3。利用定量预测的方法是系统动力学模型方法预测中国未来木材供给和需求量。根据木材供给和需求影响因素的分析结果,建立变量体系,并设定相应参数,构建系统动力学模型,该模型的最大创新点在于通过把森林蓄积分为幼龄林、中幼龄林、近成熟林、成熟林和过熟林等5个龄级,能够预测各个径级,特别是大径级木材的供给和需求量。由于中国木材供需矛盾主要体现在结构性短缺,即是大径级木材的短缺,未来大径级木材的供给和需求量最为人们关注。系统动力学模型预测的结果是:2015年中国大径级的供给和需求分别为9000万m~3和18000万m~3,供需缺口为9000万m~3;2020年大径级的供给和需求分别为9 300万m~3和20 000万m~3,供需缺口约为11000万m~3。中国在2015年木材供给和需求量分别是2.5亿m~3和4.0亿m~3,供需缺口为1.5亿m~3;2020年木材供给和需求量分别为2.6亿m~3和4.6亿m~3,供需缺口为2.0亿m~3。2015年和2020年中国大径级木材缺口分别占中国木材总缺口的60%和55%,由此可以说明,中国木材缺口主要是大径级木材的短缺。2010-2050年中国木材供给的增长速度(6%)远远低于需求的增长速度(13%),供需缺口逐年增加,2015年约为1.5亿m~3,2020年约为2亿m~3,到2050年接近6亿m~3。建议国家应尽早采取有效措施,避免木材供需缺口不断扩大的趋势。最后,通过以上的分析和预测结果,结合中国木材安全的影响因素和战略框架,提出了立足国内木材供给、优化国际木材资源配置和发展林产工业循环经济的战略措施,以及技术和政策保障体系。技术保障体系包括:(1)提高森林质量,增加森林蓄积量;(2)提高森林经营水平,改善林种结构;(3)改造低产林,提高林地生产力;(4)提倡科学的生态采伐技术;(5)改革木材流通模式,实施木材集中加工;政策保障体系包括:(1)制定发展规划,加强宏观指导;(2)有效落实和加强监管已制定的产业政策;(3)调动社会力量发展珍贵树种;(4)为境外企业创造良好的国际发展环境;(5)加大金融财政扶持政策;(6)倡导木材节约型社会。

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of previous experts’research on China timber supply and demand, the paper concludes the development and change of China timber production, import and export trade, analyszes the main influence factors on China timber supply and demand, forecasts the future trend of China timber, especially large diameter timber supply and demand bu using qualitative and quatitative method based on economic forecast theory, supply and demand theory and systematic dynamics theory, put forword the strategic measures and guarantee system.Based on the data from the seventh national forestry inventory, the potential of providing timber from China natural forest and plantation are analyzed and forecast. The potential of providing timber from natural forest is 83 million m~3 in 2015 and 75 million m~3 in 2020..The potential of providing timber from plantation is 190 million m~3 in 2015 and 226 million m~3 in 2020.China timber output is not enough for booming domestic demand for timber. In order to diwindle the structure gap between domestic timber supply and demand, China has been importing large quantities of tropical timber. Sysmetic dynamics model of China tropical timber is established in order to discuss the development trend of China tropical timber supply and demand. The results of the model is that China tropical timber supply and demand in 2015 is 13 milliion m~3 and 22 million m~3, the gap is 9 million m~3, in 2020 is 13 million m~3 and 25 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 12 million m~3.The paper analyzes and forecasts China timber supply and demand in the future by using qualitative analysis method, namely Delphi method. The Delphi method is to choose 8 experts to give their answers to the questionnaire with minimum, most probable and maximum for China timber supply and demand in 2015 and 2020 for three times and get the results, calculates the third response result by using average value method and weighted mean value method. The conclusion is that China timber supply and demand in 2015 is 270 million m~3 and 400-410 million m~3, in 2020 is 280 million m~3 and 170-180 million m~3 respectively. The paper is to forecasts China timber supply and demand in the future by using quantitative forecast method, namely systematic dynamics model. The model is established by set up variable system, confirm corresponding parameter based on the analysis results of influence factors on timber supply and demand. The innovation of the model is to forecast different diameters, especially large diameter timber supply and demand by dividing 5 age class, namely young age forest, middle age forest, near mature forest, mature forest and over mature forest. The future large diameter timber supply and demand is concerned because the contradiction of China timber supply and demand mainly features the structure shortage, namely the shortage of large diameter timber. The results of Systematic dynamics model is that China supply and demand of large diameter timber in 2015 is 90 million m~3 and 180 million m~3, the gap is 90 million m~3, in 2020 is 93 million m~3 and 200 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 110 million m~3. The total of China timber supply and demand in 2015 is 250 million m~3 and 400 million m~3, the gap is 150 million m~3, in 2020 is 260 m~3 million and 460 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 200 million gap. The growth rate of China timber supply is much lower than that of China timber demand from 2010 to 2050. The gap of supply and demand is expanding annually, 150 million in 2015, 200 million in 2020, 600 million in 2050. Effective measures should be taken to avoid the expanding trend of timber supply and demand.In the end, strategic measures and technological and policy guarantee system have been put forward. The strategic measures are to base ourselves on domestic timber supply, optimize international timber resources allocation and develop recycle economy for forest products industry. Based on above-analyzed and forecast results and combination of influence factors and strategic framework of China timber safty, technological guarantee system include(1)to improve forest quality and increase forest stocking volume(2)increase forest management level, improve forest species structure(3)improve low production forest,increase production capacity of forest land(4)advocate scentific ecological logging technology(5)reform timber circulation pattern,the implementation of timber concentration processing. The policy guarantee system involves(1)formulate development planning, strengthen macro guidance(2)effective implement and strengthen industrial policies(3)stimulate social power to plant precious timber species;(4)build better international development environment for overseas enterprises(5)accelerate financial supporting policies(6)advocate timber saving society.

【关键词】 木材供给需求预测模型趋势中国
【Key words】 TimberSupplyDemandForecastModelTrendChina
  • 【分类号】F426.88;F752.6
  • 【被引频次】17
  • 【下载频次】961
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